I need some help with oil!

Discussion in 'Trading' started by zanagra, Apr 21, 2011.

  1. Did not see that, but fully agree. NoDoji pumps out many of such "expert" opinions...in trading you have to take a stance, but in his posts I never quite frankly understood on which side he is leaning...


     
    #11     Apr 24, 2011
  2. Didnt you already answer your own question? If some asset refuses to go down on negative news (Obama speech and couple other catalysts) then maybe there is inherent strength in the market and if you are short it means to get out NO MATTER your position size, entry level...



     
    #12     Apr 24, 2011
  3. "its going higher", but.... " do not listen to anyone". ???


    Is this what you think or do you have crystal balls?

     
    #13     Apr 24, 2011
  4. NoDoji

    NoDoji

    Thank you! My initial replies were definitely tongue-in-cheek :p

    However, everything I wrote after the words "The way it will happen is that there will be more sellers than buyers, which will drive price lower until it reaches 108.50" was dead serious.

    Also (though it's not relevant to trading in any way), I am a "she" not a "he".

    I've been in your shoes on many occasions, because as a new trader, I gravitated toward counter-trend trading.

    Your trade is not bad luck, it's just bad trade management. Whether you went long or short at 108.64 doesn't even matter. What matters is that you stayed behind at a bad party long after price action handed you a personal invitation to the best party in town.

    What is your disaster stop on this trade? If you don't have one, set one.

    This is really important: If you're stopped out and price reverses back in your favor, that means nothing. If you're stopped out of the trade, the trade is over. The only thing about the trade that's important at that point is the fact that you held a position beyond the point price told you to exit or switch sides, and you know that you must learn to recognize these signals to avoid repeating this mistake in the future.

    If you're stopped out to the exact tick and price suddenly drops below your entry price, that means nothing. It doesn't mean you're stupid, or that you should've been more patient and let the trade "work", or that the market is watching you and laughing because it made you exit at the worst possible price.

    You've already made a mistake by putting on a trade without an advance plan. What's important now is to place a cap on your loss, and learn to read technical price action so in the future you can avoid a mistake like this.

    Send me a PM if you want a quick primer in how to profit by trading what price is doing instead of what you think price should be doing.

    And good "luck" with your trade! :cool:
     
    #14     Apr 24, 2011
  5. The tip of the spear lies in Iran. I greatly underestimated myself. Things are playing out in Syria that can quickly escalate to Iran, for the better long term but could get very messy in the next few months. Once things are settled evil speculatiors will trade it way down, but get no credit.

    I don't care if oil trades at $150 or $30, it is what it is and that is the process of price discovery.
     
    #15     Apr 24, 2011
  6. If you are looking for prediction my friend you ought to visit some astrologer. Traders work with probabilities. There is a finite probability this market will go up. It is p. The probability that it will down down is 1-p. If you want NoDoji to tell you the value of p you are dreaming. Traders keep the values of p for themsleves. However, I will tell you at this point that p = 0.5. What matters is your position and your stops. Depending on those, p = 0.5 may be good or bad for you. Trading is not easy. If you are looking for easy solutions you won't get any here or anywhere in the world.
     
    #16     Apr 24, 2011
  7. zanagra

    zanagra

    Dear guyz,

    Thank you all of you for helping me out! I have put a stop loss on $112.50. Posting for assistance, or asking help from expert "players" never means that u need astrological advice, its just to seek guidance from peoples experience!!

    Lets see whats in my destiny tonight!!

    Thanks again!
     
    #17     Apr 24, 2011
  8. Surdo

    Surdo

    I see you are not a thinking man, do you even have an opinion?
    Oil is going higher, what is your opinion jackass?
    It's trolls like you why I took a year away from this toxic board!
     
    #18     Apr 24, 2011