I need some help with oil!

Discussion in 'Trading' started by zanagra, Apr 21, 2011.

  1. zanagra


    Dear All,

    First of all, many thanks to all of you for posting up such informative market news.

    i just wanted to ask, that in your expert opinions, do we see the oil hitting a $108.5 or below mark in the coming days, i.e. Monday onwards?

    and if you think yes, can you please elaborate me a bit that how?


    P.S >> Anticipatory apology if I am not "specific", I am new to the TRADING world :cool:
  2. 1) ?.... ! .... is Obama "serious" about punishing oil traders/speculators? There could be a some "downside potential" Sunday evening and Monday morning. :eek:
    2) It could trigger enormous commodity deflation if there becomes an expectation that all commodities will go into nasty bear markets. That could eventually cause another repeat of September-2008. :( :mad:
  3. Either long oil or get out of its way. Imo, I expect oil to keep on trucking along next week. Next stop $120.
  4. NoDoji


    In my expert opinion I sincerely believe that oil will hit 108.50 or below at some point from Monday onwards. However, it's possible that it could run well into the 120's or even higher before doing so.

    The way it will happen is that there will be more sellers than buyers, which will drive price lower until it reaches 108.50, at which point rabid trend-following bots may begin snapping up contracts like food junkies at Hometown Buffet (that price level is right around the rising 20-day exponential moving average, one of the trend-followers' value price levels for entering, or adding to, a long position).

    If price breaks out above 114.00 with conviction before pulling back to 108.50, then 108.50 may later become a sell trigger level, as it will then be below the rising moving average, indicating a deeper pullback to one of the lower trend lines.

    Since you are new to trading, I offer you some sage advice that will save you from many losses:

    Trade based on what price is doing right now in your trading time frame, not on your (or anyone else's) opinion of what price may do or should do.

    If your trading time frame is the next week or so, you should already be long oil, or be looking for a price-based entry level to take a long position.

    If you are short oil right now, you are probably underwater because you are trading against the prevailing trend. There was a pure counter-trend short setup on 4/11 and a possible trend reversal short setup early this week when price broke lower off a lower high, but these short positions were invalidated on Thursday and a short term swing trader with a counter-trend short on between 4/11 and last Monday would've closed out the short for a profit or at least break even and either switched to a long position on Thursday or is waiting for the next short signal to trigger.
  5. Traders don't "see" into the future. They trade the present only. For traders, time is a tedious sequence of instances called ticks. If they do not like the next tick, they get out. If they like it, they stay with the trade.

    The rest is for card readers and astrologers. Nobody can "see" the price for next week. However says so, is a royal jerk. Especially when you have wars, unrest and nuclear fusion in action.

    My suggestion: if you start feeling like you need some hope or advice about a trade, get out as soos as you can, at market. Sit down and prepare a strict trading plan that will do away with emotions of any kind, including hopes and dreams. That is if you do not want to end up paying for this knowledge like me.

    This is the best advice from NoDoji:

  6. 1) You're a 2-handed economist? :confused:
    2) On one hand....but on the other hand.....:p
  7. NoDoji


    Well he did say "Monday onwards".

    And he didn't say "without going way up first".

    :p :p
  8. zanagra


    Actually, I am stuck with a trade,

    I am selling, one volume of oil, Held at 108.64, my bad luck, ever since I put my hands on it, oil doesn't seems coming down! What do u all suggest, should I close it right here (on monday right on opening) ? or should I hold it!

  9. Surdo


    It is going higher, so pick a spot to get out if it gets too painful, and DO NOT listen to anybody on this board.
  10. lol, one of the funnier posts recently:

    So you are giving us your "expert" opinion that oil can either go up or down from Monday? Thank you, your contributions are highly valued and appreciated.

    #10     Apr 24, 2011