More of the same. Any time I feel frustration setting in, I force myself to consider where I was 6 months ago, when results were very erratic. Slow and steady is acceptable here. Also experienced some unusual feelings during the report. In the past, I would have been gun-slinging the DOM - today, I was content to just sit and watch, and wait for what I felt were bona fide entry signals. Had I not made a mental/DOM error and stopped myself out, when I was intending to add an additional ct, the day was acceptable for the time spent.
Looking back is very helpful for a boost. I was reading through some notes I made on an old thread yesterday and was surprised at the difference. Night and day. Consider some of the older threads where you read posts of people (that are really ticked off) pointing out reversals Jack made and saying there is no possible way you could have reversed there, no signal, nothing in the data, no way. This is the long version, btw . I had notes trying to figure how the **** could someone have reversed here, or here or here. . . Then made notes (assumptions vs. taking it on face value) on other possible finer tools that "had" to have been used as there was just nothing there on the chart that would tell you to reverse at that particular spot. Now I saw it plain as day - OK, not so plain as day. But it was clearly there, and as it was mentioned beforehand. But for some reason I didn't carry forward the reasoning into those trades, or my brain just register it. What is so odd is beforehand is it's like someone saying we're going to do this and that. But then you go to do it and don't see it or make the connection and the instructions didn't apply here for some reason. But you (I) look back and think how stupid, it was right there, right in front of my face - and it was explained pretty clear. Go figure. I guess there are still preconceived notions that put up blocks without you being aware of it. Disbelief not allowing you to see something, but creating an alternative instead - the inventing syndrome. OT example: my wife took a cab to the dentist and the guy couldn't/wouldn't take here where she was going, tried taking her to the hospital. So she said take me to Macy's, and I'll give directions from there. He takes her to Sears. She says no, this is Sears, take me to Macy's, he insists they are at Macy's even though the Sears sign is right in front of him. It goes on like this until finally they get there. Even when they get there he insists that it isn't the correct street, with the street sign in front of him, and keeps insisting that the dentist building is down the street. He couldn't grasp that our dentist was in a different building from the other dentists he was aware of. He insisted there was no dentist where he dropped her off and my wife was wrong. He probably still believes the dentist doesn't exist -EZ
Heheh - that hack must of been a real wingdinger Sounds like your wife was very accommodating - I doubt if I could have been so diplomatic faced w/ those circumstances! But the analogy to trading is very good. Often times, the signals which are the most clear are the most difficult to execute. I guess one could call it the "too good to be true" rationale. And for whatever the reason, I find this to be even more pronounced when I am looking to get long. I must have an innate fear of gravity or something, because I can always find a reason why price is about to drop like a rock. Viewing the mkts via the price/volume relationship is something that can only be assimilated over time, in my opinion. I think these ideas are quickly discounted by many because they lack a neatly packaged, rule-based structure that many assume is the key to successful trading. Hard and fast rules are easily read and understood, whereas conceptual rules can leave a person scratching his head. Artful interpretation defies exact definition, but is required in annotating both the channels and Gaussian formations. As you stated above, Ezzy, it is encouraging to look back over our shoulders now and again to gain some perspective of the road traveled to date, and to understand that the pieces of the puzzle do fit, if one simply spends the time with 'em. Granted, I may still have to crane my neck in a peculiar way, or squint my eyes, in order to see some of this - ha! But, like just the other day, your mention of aligning the Gaussian with price extremes helped to add some clarity here - I'm sure I've read it before, but this time around it just made more sense. And this is how I assume things will continue as we move forward - the connections will be made through trial and error and repetition, and finally, awareness. I don't have a problem with that Best regards ...
I assume everyone enjoyed the boost in volatility today. The day started off with problems in Ensign - it kept bungling the auto IB connection last night, so I just saved everything and shut the computer down. Starting up this a.m., I was greeted w/ Ensign having 'lost' my entire ES/YM workspace??? Add to this the fact that I just plain missed the read on Pt. 3 of the dominant down channel; plus, having to deal w/ numerous interruptions around here, I was lucky to catch what I did today. Not quite 3X the daily range - heheh. For those that rode 'er down hard today, congrats!
I'm pretty laid back but at that point I'd probably be chewing the guy out to put it mildly. So many times it's the old baggage that gets us. You mentioned the "fear of gravity" and I can relate to that as well. When I first started trading it was primarily breakouts. So there were a lot of FBO's. Many years later I still almost expect the market to move against me right off. So even if waiting for change, a tick against me starts a little gnawing in the gut. Swing trading the last 8 - 9 years got the entries to where the majority were going in the right direction out of the gate, so a small retrace didn't get the angst. There was a high comfort level and good success. Fast forward to now, and getting used to reversing instead of entry/exit. That gnawing comes back a little because the confidence level is lower due to lack of experience and uncertainty of when to act. I expect that to continue to disappear as time goes on. Back to baggage, if you learn something incorrectly and try to fix it, there's still some lingering effects. When I started to pick this up last Summer, there was a gap in the SCT threads. So I was trying to get up to speed while it seemed everyone was over my head doing fine stuff. And that thread stopped. So I was trying to learn on my own and developed some bad channel habits, seeing them everywhere, going in the wrong direction, etc. Even this afternoon got a little mixed up at one point trying to put in too many channels and had to slow down and consider the volume and gaussians. So I recognized it as an old habit trying to creep in. There's something to be said for learning on your own. But I think it's best if you have someone looking over your shoulder correcting mistakes immediately. I tried to pick up golf and it's been a disaster. Well meaning tips, even from instructors, that were completely wrong. Went from right to left handed. And now I am starting all over from square one rebuilding the swing, trying to eliminate the bad habits. These were so bad and got ingrained so quickly it was amazing. I'm using plastic practice balls and a chipping wedge, and only 1/2 to 3/4 swing. This is because every time I put a heavier ball down I would change the swing. So I'm trying to force the muscle memory by repetition and doing it right so many times it's locked in. I'm shocked at how hard it is even knowing the mistakes. They say it takes 10,000 strokes to change one aspect of your swing and make it stick. I now understand that. Sounds more like torture -EZ
The volatility was nice after a slow start this week. I think your trades work out pretty well considering the hold time. If you don't mind a suggestion stolen from a Jack post, instead of exiting force yourself to hold until you get a new entry signal in the opposite direction. That might help stretch things out. No exits, just entries. Regards - EZ
Nice trading Thurs. I'm looking at you're spreadsheet and noticed a column labelled MAE. I suppose this means Maximum Adverse Excursion, right? If so, some of your trades went against you by -2.5 pts. Why do you feel confident enough on these drawdowns to hold through it?
EZ - wow, ten thousand swings to change one aspect!? Extrapolating from that point, I guess you are only several million away before you're ready to go head to head w/ Tiger I played the game in my younger days, and reached a plateau where I simply didn't have the talent nor the determination to improve anymore. This eventually led to frustration, and the clubs finally ended up at the Goodwill store. I won't bore everyone with a lengthy list of my bad trading habits, but will surely agree with your inference of how difficult they can be to fix, once ingrained. I've already stated in this journal a few times how I am going to toss caution to the wind and 'hold', but yet I revert to my safety zone at the first signs of trouble. One major problem is lack of patience - is that why I'm often mumbling under my breath in the checkout lanes - hahaha. Congrats if you have already achieved the ability to reverse sides and remain in the mkt - I definitely have not reached that level. The few times I have done so put me in a very uncomfortable place, telling me that I still have much to learn. The first order of business is to learn the Str/Sq (I've drug my heels on that one), since I believe that is the first tool we've been given that can generate intra-bar change signals. I also feel the approaching material on the DOM and T&S will be quite telling. We shall see! Trade well, EZ ...
Vista - thanks for your comments. Yes, your are correct: MAE = max adverse excursion, and likewise, MFE = max favorable ... Answering your question will probably open a can of worms here, but I will try to explain nonetheless. Your choice of the word confidence is interesting, because it is confidence that I am striving for. My entries can sometimes be quite early (could this be related to the patience problem mentoned above? ) I think it is safe to say that trying to use a 3 or 4 tick stop will often result in accepting many small losers. OTOH, 8 to 10 tick stops can sting quite a bit. But with my limited experience in this mkt, I've noticed it is quite common for the mkt to retrace from this same 8 to 10 tick range, in relation to my entry. Back to that confidence thing - for whatever the reason ( I suppose a couple of sessions w/ Ruth Barrons Roosevelt would lay bare some truths) once I am in a trade, I find it much easier to hold if I am prepared to add to the position at the next logical (maybe the 20 sma, a fib level, a trend line, prev. S&R, etc.) price point. This immediately begs the question: " why don't you just accept a small loss, and look to reenter at a more advantageous price". My only answer (and strictly tied to my personality) is that I do not shake off losers quickly, and thus, will not be prepared to reenter at the appropriate time. For me, it provides a calming effect to know ahead of time that I will work with the trade within a 3-4 point range. Also, this "average down" style must be done within the proper context, as pointed out by nkhoi's statement. To those of us employing price/volume analysis, this means that I must see volume activity that supports my initial reason for entry: for ex., I'm anticipating a non-dom traverse on decreasing volume, and my reason for entry is still valid, altho my original entry was ill-timed. I should restate: I have based this journal on a hypothetical 20K acct, which I feel supports a position of up to 4 cts. You can see where I built up w/ 3 cts on a trade today (#'s 12, 11, 10). And, again, Bracket Trader unfortunately does not individually timestamp additional contracts added to an open position. Hmm - I just noticed something else - BT also 'averages' the MAE for the entire position, and just fills in the cells all the same - that sucks. To be accurate, MAE @ #12 = 3.75, #11 = 2.50 and #10 = 1.25 Couple of final caveats: I do not press these kind of trades - they are almost always used as a means for exiting w/ a small profit. If I am just totally wrong on mkt direction, 9 times out of 10 I will still be afforded a profitable exit - but I've also learned this is not a time to 'hope'. The opportunity to exit may only be offered once, and ya best just take it and regroup. And, I do not recommend this to anyone - its just something I've worked with for long enough to believe in for my own needs. And it goes without saying, if volume is pegging extreme levels against my position, I just get the hell out. Sorry for this verbose and rather poorly explained reply. Best regards ...