I love the greenback...2008

Discussion in 'Journals' started by indahook, Jan 16, 2008.

  1. I am not good at keeping journals. Basically I have ADD when it comes to keeping anything orderly(thank goodness for electronic docs). But I do enjoy posting on ET, whether it be the occasional major market call http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=108764&highlight=dow+theory or clowning around. So since I spend so much time here I am going to try and keep this journal.

    So in honor of my most favorite long term position I christen this thread. "I love the greenback".


    Have been out of individual equities since Oct 19. I was playing short term consolidation breakouts in 2007 with good luck. Until the fall came around. Then things got strange. The market stayed the same, yet it was different. 9 out of my last 10 breakouts failed. At that point I pulled back and went to cash. Sitting back with nothing to do I pulled out the weekly charts **blew off the dust** and took notice of the DX index.

    In the past when I wanted to trade the DX it was via the DX on the nybot. But I came to discover the UUP etf. Leverage does not bother me but if I can trade in cash I always take the choice. So On November 19th I made my first purchase in the UUP..and made three subsequent so far bringing me to an avg price of 23.41. The management fee is ok and it pays a dividend. More importantly it allows me participate in any upside or downside the DX presents.

    I have stated several places in ET in the last 6 months that I beleive the DX sell off has been overdone. Yet I treaded lightly. However something happened last week that gave me much more confidence in the USD bottom. During the fed meeting they said they were going to keep on the same path they were running. i.e few more rate cuts. Yet on that day the DX and UUP were slightly up..this was the sign I have been waiting for! More "bad news" for the greenback yet it shrugged it off...

    Today more buying comes in as the EU states they will lower rates. DX/UUP+1% or so on that

    Long term unbroken trend.....everybody hates it...extreme sentiment...nobody left to get short...and the instrument shrugs off bad news...I love it.

    My gut says back to par in 18-24 months..thats about a .235cent move..or 30%. I will track my pos with the DX index..but trade via the UUP

    Or I could be completely wrong and get carried out! Either way I will have fun.

    Going forward I will keep all my ET posts here.

    I have the brains and the looks...lets make lots of greenbacks.
  2. It never ceases to amaze me how human psychology reacts asymetrically to wins and losses.

    Earning money thru a trade offers no emotional reward for me. Especially if the profit is taken and booked quickly. In turn an equal loss offers me no emotional pain. But back one loss up with another and there is a different picture. Face heats up, heart may beat a bit stronger and the tendency to overtrade peeks its ugly head.

    This is an issue I am focusing on right now. My timeframes run from daily to weekly. But for experimental purposes I am trading intraday. The emotional aspect of daytrading is as challenging as it gets for me. But being the type of person I am I wish to master this as well as the longer outlook.

    I joined the USMC because they were the hardest. I have become a proficient surfer, which in my opinion is one of the hardest sports to master. And I took up trading because people told me it cannot be done by most.

    Living life pushing yourself as hard as can be emotionally and physically is the only way I know. It simply cannot be otherwise for me.

    So, since I have not been a daytrader since 2001 I will sim the ES for awhile. Gonna set my balance at $10k with them. And if I can turn that into 30 I will deposit 10 for real. Of course this will be money I can afford to lose as all my trading cap is. No reason for more than 10k if I keep it 1-3 cars for scaling purposes.

    Will start journaling daytrades on Monday. In addition to long term calls
  3. Why does nothing surprise me anymore? Because with only 11 years of mkt experience under my belt. 8 of those trading I have been very lucky to witness a ragin bull mkt...tanking bear mkt..tremendous currency trends..Deflation leading into inflation...commodity bull mkt...AND now several surprise cuts.

    So when I turned on the laptop Tuesday at 9:45 est to get the flavor of world mkts seeing the ES down 60 handles was interesting. Not scary or exciting. I know I sound flip. But it is the truth.


    Scalped out 5.25 points in the ES. Pretty much nothing since the range is...well huge...too lazy to pull up TR on the indicator tree.

    No matter, i`m not in this part of the game for 10-20 point moves. I am into small consolidation patterns, and taking what the big candle gives me.

    bot 1 @ 1296.00..sld 1 @ 1301.25

    Green is a victory today.

    Good start to the week. Could have been better. But it can always be better...

    Edit - Forgot to add in equity for this experiment.
    10k base
    Day one-10,257.90 net.


    The only thing I am upset about is that they didnt cut 1.00...I really want to refinance my home from 5.625 too 4.625
  4. no comment.
  5. Fair enough.

    How the waves on the central coast today?
  6. I dont have any degree. University of Hard Knocks.

    Love that cheesy ass song!


    Back for tiny move

    Bot 1 @ 1320.25..sld 1 @ 1322.00

    10,340.80 net...
  7. jimmyz


    good luck man....
  8. DUDE!!! Holy smokes I was actually thinking of you yesterday...no kidding at all. Very timely.

    Shot you a PM.
  9. haven't been there in years.

    i had no comment because...i'm looking for my spot on the dollar, and I want everyone else to keep hating it.
  10. I hear you. Been a $ bull since October but I wouldnt mind a dump back down to 75 for some more on the cheap.
    #10     Jan 23, 2008