. June 7, 2008 SouthAmerica: Some people on this forum sent me a private message and others sent me an email asking me how I could help them reach Petrobras, for them to participate on the oil business in Brazil. I posted the following on this forum about a month ago, but I would suggest that you guys contact Francisco Gros and his new company directly and take from there since he is involved in the oil business in Brazil and I am not. ***** Here is what I posted on May 6, 2008 on this thread: But here is a potential winner in the coming years â just keep in mind this new company. I know Francisco Gros since the time when he was with Morgan Stanley in New York about ten years ago. The last time I got in contact with him it was about 3 years ago when he was the CEO of Fosfertil. But here is a summary of his background: Francisco Roberto André Gros has been the Chief Executive Officer of Fosfertil-Untrafertil since May 2003. Mr. Gros served as Chief Executive Officer of Fertilizantes Fosfatados SA. Mr. Gros served as Chief Executive Officer of Petrobrás since January 2002. In February 2000, Mr. Gros served as President of BNDES while serving as a Director of Petrobrás. And from 1991 to 1992 and also in 1981, Mr. Gros served as the President of the Central Bank of Brazil. By the way, I am not involved in any way with this new company. I just know Mr. Francisco Gros and I know he is a reputable person besides having the knowledge of high finances which is necessary for anyone to be able to run such a company. ***** âOGX Petroleo June IPO to Raise at Least $1.5 Billion, Gros Saysâ By Adriana Brasileiro Bloomberg News â April 7, 2008 April 7 (Bloomberg) -- OGX Petroleo e Gas Participacoes SA, the oil company owned by billionaire Eike Batista, plans to raise at least $1.5 billion in an initial public offering in June to fund exploration projects. ``The final amount will depend on investors' appetite, on how the market evolves until then, but I'd say that $1.5 billion is the minimum,'' Francisco Gros, vice president of the board and former chief executive, told Bloomberg in an interview in Rio de Janeiro. He said the IPO also aims to give clearer valuation to the company, which Batista estimates at about $15 billion. OGX spent $800 million to buy rights to explore 21 Brazilian oil fields in a government auction in November. Gros said OGX has funding for initial seismic work on the fields and to start leasing equipment. The company in December raised $1.3 billion in a private share placement. OGX, which is investing to take advantage of record high energy prices, hasn't developed oil fields before. The business will probably become Batista's most important, Gros said. ``Mining is still important, but oil has a more interesting potential. Besides, it's increasingly clear that there are very significant oil reserves in offshore Brazil,'' he said. Crude oil traded above $107 a barrel in New York today after gaining 0.6 percent last week as the sliding dollar and faster inflation led investors to buy commodities. Gros also said that Rodolfo Landim was appointed to replace him as chief executive officer of OGX. Landin was CEO of MMX Mineracao e Metalicos SA, Batista's mining business. To contact the reporter on this story: Adriana Brasileiro in Rio de Janeiro at abrasileiro@bloomberg.net Last Updated: April 7, 2008 Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?...r=latin_america ********** From Bloomberg News To contact the reporter on this story: Alexander Ragir in New York at aragir@bloomberg.net Last Updated: September 5, 2007 Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PETR4 BS) rose 34 centavos, or 0.7 percent, to 52.78 reais. Eike Batista, a Brazilian billionaire, plans to create a company named OGX with $500 million to prospect for gas reserves in countries such as Brazil, O Estado de S. Paulo reported. Francisco Gros, former president of Brazil's state- controlled Petrobras, will run the new business, Estado said. Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?...id=amMvbKHh_cF4 .
. June 7, 2008 SouthAmerica: Here is some further info about this new IPO. ***** IPO VIEW - Brazil's OGX adds sizzle to tepid IPO market By Jessica Hall Reuters - Fri Jun 6, 2008 PHILADELPHIA, June 6 (Reuters) - The hottest offering in the IPO market lies far south, deep in the oil fields off the coast of Brazil. OGX Petroleo e Gas Participacoes, which is expected to raise about $2.9 billion (4.7 billion reais) next week, would be the third largest Brazilian initial public offering in history, according to Dealogic. If an over-allotment is exercised, the offering could raise as much as $3.3 billion (5.4 billion reais). OGX, created in September 2007, is owned by Brazilian billionaire Eike Batista, who made his fortune in the mining business. It is part of Batista's conglomerate, which includes a water company, power plants and mining company MMX Mineracao, which went public in 2006. OGX's high-profile offering would counter Brazil's tepid IPO market, which has been hurt by the spreading concerns of the U.S. credit crisis. So far this year, 23 Brazilian IPOs have been cancelled or withdrawn, compared with 10 withdrawn IPOs deals for all of 2007, according to Dealogic. The offering mirrors last year's mega-deals, which included the Sao Paulo's Bovespa Holding stock exchange, Brazil's biggest IPO that raised $3.7 billion (6.0 billion reais), and Brazil's commodities and futures exchange BM&F, that garnered $3.4 billion (5.5 billion reais), Dealogic said. Batista, who boasts about his goal to become Brazil's richest man, made headlines in November at Brazil's annual auction of oil licenses. He paid more than $1 billion (1.6 billion reais) for licenses to explore 21 offshore blocks, upstaging oil majors like Petrobras, StatoilHydro and Devon Energy Corp. The majority of OGX's licenses are for shallow waters up to 400 meters (1,312 feet) deep. OGX's partners, Denmark-based Maersk and France's Perenco, operate deep and ultra-deep water blocks. OGX estimates that its license areas hold 4.8 billion barrels of oil equivalent and expects production to start in 2011. OGX's offering comes at a time when crude oil is teetering near record levels. Crude oil rose Friday following comments by Israel's transport minister that an attack on Iranian nuclear sites looked "unavoidable." Meanwhile, a Morgan Stanley report said U.S. crude prices could reach $150 (244 reais) a barrel by July 4. Recent oil discoveries by Petrobras, Brazil's state-run energy company, has raised analysts' expectations that the country will soon join the ranks of the world's top oil producers. UNPROVEN COMPANY WITH NO ASSETS Still, OGX faces many risks, analysts said. "While OGX will be fully listed ... and is comprised of 30 professionals with reputable resumes and strong incentives to well perform, it is a company in the early stages of development with no real assets," JP Morgan analyst Lilyanna Yang said. Analysts said a successful offering of OGX could boost the valuation of Petrobras, which recently had an offshore find in Brazil's Santos Basin Tupi oil field and has hopes for similar success in a nearby Jupiter field. "We expect the upcoming IPO of Brazil-based pure upstream oil company OGX to further increase the Brazilian oil and gas sector's visibility," Yang said. "A successful IPO of OGX could lead to a re-rating of Petrobras shares towards an even more optimistic view," Yang said. "We believe the key valuation driver is to assess the likelihood of OGX finding oil in a commercially, earnings-accretive way." OGX expects to issue about 4.95 million shares in the range of 833 reais to 1,131 reais per share ($511.59 to $696.61), and about 742,000 additional shares if an overallotment is exercised, according to Dealogic. It will trade on Brazil's Bovespa. Banco de Investimentos Credit Suisse, Banco UBS Pactual SA, Banco Merrill de Investimentos SA and Banco Itau BBA SA will serve as bookrunners for the offering. In an interview with Reuters in March, Batista said he expects OGX to eventually supplant his mining unit as the flagship company of his conglomerate. "Investors are going to assume a geological risk, because Petrobras already has reserves and positive estimates for reserves.... But OGX doesn't have any proven reserves, so the risk is greater than Petrobras, but so is the premium," said Nelson Matos, an analyst at Banco do Brasil Investimentos. "OGX hired a lot of people from Petrobras, and that should mitigate some of the risk," he added. "There's going to be a lot of demand because these blocks are all in promising areas." (Additional reporting by Denise Luna in Rio de Janeiro and Todd Benson in Sao Paulo, editing by Leslie Gevirtz) ($1 = 1.63 BRL) Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUSN0530366720080606 .
. June 11, 2008 SouthAmerica: Here is some further info about the this new Brazilian IPO: "OGX Petroleo e Gas Participacoes" Here is a lesson about oil independence from Brazil to the United States: "Brazil imported around 90 percent of its oil in the 1970s but turned into a net exporter of oil in 2006." (Note: I believe they made a mistake on this article - the year instead of being 2006, it should be 2008) ***** âOGX raises 5.87 bln reais, Brazil's 3rd biggest IPOâ Reuters - Wed Jun 11, 2008 SAO PAULO, June 11 (Reuters) - Brazil's OGX Petroleo e Gas Participacoes said on Wednesday its initial public offering raised 5.87 billion reais ($3.6 billion), making it the third largest IPO in Brazil's history. OGX, an oil and gas exploration and production company formed in September 2007 by Brazilian mining king Eike Batista, said it would place 5.19 million shares at the maximum of its bookbuilding range at 1,131 reais a share. The Sao Paulo stock exchange, Bovespa Holding, became Brazil's biggest IPO when it raised 6.6 billion reais in September, and Brazil's BM&F commodities and futures exchange (BMEF3.SA: Quote, Profile, Research) came in second two months later after it raised nearly 6 billion reais. OGX shares were placed with qualified investors, who had to invest a minimum of 300,000 reais. Credit Suisse, one of the coordinators of the IPO, may still exercise its right to buy a supplementary lot of 15 percent of the initial offer. Shares of OGX are scheduled to begin trading on Friday on Bovespa's Mercado Novo exchange, which requires companies to follow international corporate governance standards such as guaranteeing minority tag along rights. The stock will trade under the symbol (OGXP3.SA: Quote, Profile, Research). Although Brazil held two successful IPOs late in 2007, 23 Brazilian IPOs have been canceled or withdrawn so far this year. In 2007, 10 IPOs were withdrawn, according to Dealogic. Foreign investors often make up the bulk of Brazil's IPOs. OGX paid more than 1.6 billion reais ($1 billion) in 2007 for 21 offshore oil blocks. The confidence investors have in the success of this company was underscored by the fact that it has not yet produced a single barrel of oil. OGX was established nine months ago. World oil at $136 a barrel and huge offshore finds announced by Brazil's state-run oil company Petrobras (PETR4.SA: Quote, Profile, Research) (PBR.N: Quote, Profile, Research) have stirred interest in Brazil's potential as a major oil producer. Brazil imported around 90 percent of its oil in the 1970s but turned into a net exporter of oil in 2006. In late 2007, Petrobras estimated the recoverable reserves in its Tupi subsalt discovery at 5 billion to 8 billion barrels, making it the biggest deep-water find ever. It has since announced other large finds in the subsalt layer but it has not yet given reserve estimates. (Reporting by Aluisio Alves; Writing by Reese Ewing; Editing by Toni Reinhold) Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN1128212820080611 ***** Batista's OGX Is Selling $4.1 Billion of Oil Shares By Jeb Blount Bloomberg News â June 11, 2008 June 11 (Bloomberg) -- OGX Petroleo e Gas SA, the Brazilian oil company controlled by billionaire Eike Batista, is raising about 6.71 billion reais ($4.10 billion) from an initial public stock offering to finance offshore oil development. OGX is selling 5.93 million common shares at 1,131 reais a share, the company said in a statement on the Brazilian securities regulator's Web site. The amount being sold includes a possible supplemental offering, or ``over-allotment'' of stock, the statement said. If the whole over-allotment is sold, the sale will be Brazil's biggest IPO ever. The OGX sale capitalizes on soaring interest in Brazilian offshore oil in the wake of Petroleo Brasileiro SA's Nov. 8 announcement of the 5 billion- to 8 billion-barrel Tupi field, the largest discovery in the Americas since 1976. The largest previous IPO was the 6.63 billion-real Oct. 25 sale of Bovespa Holding SA. OGX, which has never drilled a well or produced oil, may have as much as 4.8 billion barrels of oil, said OGX board member Francisco Gros April 4, citing Dallas research company DeGolyer and MacNaughton. ``From an investor perspective it's hard to find a pure oil play besides OGX,'' said David Pursell, managing partner at Tudor Pickering & Holt Co., a Houston-based investment bank. ``There is also consensus that there is still a lot of oil to be found in Brazil's offshore environment.'' Excitement about Brazilian oil has helped the preferred shares of Petrobras, as the company is known, rise 92 percent in the last 12 months. It has also allowed OGX and Batista, 51, Brazil's richest man, to buck a slowdown in Brazilian initial public offerings. Fourth Offering OGX is the fourth such offering this year compared with 19 in the same period of 2007, according to Bloomberg data. The three previous offerings this year raised $469 million. The 19 in the same period last year were worth $5.64 billion. ``There is room for this stock in people's portfolios in this environment,'' Pursell said. ``This is a way to round out your portfolio and take some exploration risk.'' In January, Batista said OGX expects to begin drilling wells by the end of this year. The company hopes to announce its first discoveries in 2009, according to Gros. Batista, who said before the sale that he is worth $17 billion, paid $800 million in November to buy his first oil exploration licenses off of Brazil's coast. The creation of OGX marks his first major move away from mining. Batista, who began his business life in the gold industry, also controls MMX Mineracao e Metalicos SA, an iron- ore producer, MPX Energia SA, a coal mining and electricity generation company, and LLX Logistica SA, which handles transportation infrastructure, such as mineral slurry ducts, or pipelines for iron-ore, rail services, port construction and operation and related industrial real estate. Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aYWG6hXyf_.g&refer=news .
. June 13, 2008 SouthAmerica: This particular company it will be managed by a very competent and capable group of people including people of the caliber of Francisco Gros. Note: Let me clarify one thing: I just know Francisco Gros from years ago when he was working in New York, other than that I have absolutely no association to this company, and I have nothing to gain if this stock goes up or down. And I have not talked with Francisco Gros about this new company and this new IPO. ******* "OGX Gains as Much as 19% on 1st Trading Day After IPO" By Jeb Blount and Paulo Winterstein Bloomberg News - June 13, 2008 June 13 (Bloomberg) -- OGX Petroleo e Gas Participacoes SA, the oil company controlled by billionaire Eike Batista, rose as much as 19 percent in its first day of trading on speculation the startup will match Petroleo Brasileiro SA's success in finding oil. OGX jumped 152 reais, or 13 percent, to 1,283 in Sao Paulo trading as of 1:21 p.m. New York time. Rio de Janeiro-based OGX rose as high as 1,345 reais from the 1,131 reais initial public offering price set June 11. Batista, who made his fortune in gold mining, is taking advantage of a surge in interest in Brazilian offshore oil that started in November, when state-controlled Petrobras, as the world's sixth-largest company by market value is known, announced the largest oil discovery in the Americas in 32 years. OGX, which has yet to start drilling or exploring for oil, is counting on executives hired from Petrobras to jump start the process. ``You're certainly backing a track record of value creation,'' said Bill Rudman, who helps manage $3 billion of emerging-market equity at WestLB Mellon Asset Management in London and bought shares of OGX in the offering. ``We were reassured that existing shareholders were re-subscribing or subscribing more.'' OGX raised 5.87 billion reais in the sale. That amount would increase to 6.71 billion reais if banks take up their option to buy more stock, making the IPO Brazil's biggest ever. The sale valued OGX at $21.8 billion, making it Brazil's second-largest oil company after Petrobras. OGX plans to drill its first wells this year and report discoveries next year, according to Vice Chairman Francisco Gros, Petrobras's chief executive from 2001 to 2003. `Buy the Prospects' ``Because there is no production and there won't be production for five years you really have to buy the prospects, and the prospects are a function of the people and the assets,'' Rudman said. Batista controls about three-quarters of OGX stock after the sale. Demand for the IPO totaled about $30 billion, about 10 times what he initially expected to sell. ``As I understand it the sale will bring in 6.7 billion reais,'' Batista said at a press conference at the Sao Paulo stock exchange. ``The money we've raised is more than sufficient to meet our needs.'' At 6.7 billion reais, the IPO would surpass Bovespa Holding SA's 6.63 billion reais offering on Oct. 25. Drilling Plans OGX plans to drill 51 wells at the exploratory blocks off the coast of Brazil, Batista said. The company will explore 21 blocks it bought at an auction by Brazil's national oil agency last year, working with partners Maersk Oil Brasil Ltda. and Perenco Petroleo e Gas do Brasil Ltda. at seven of them, according to OGX's prospectus. LLX Logistica SA, the transportation and port-operation unit of Batista's MMX Mineracao e Metalicos SA, will begin trading as a separate company July 19, Batista told reporters. There are no plans to raise new capital for the company before it begins trading as a separate unit. Shareholders of MMX will vote June 19 on the spinoff plan, which will also separate the iron-ore mining assets of MMX's IronX unit. The new companies were valued at about 1.04 billion reais, according to an April 8 MMX filing. In a separate statement today, Batista's Centennial Asset Mining Fund LLC agreed to buy 43.7 million reais of shares being sold by Centennial Asset Participacoes Logistica SA, which provides port and transportation services. To contact the reporters on this story: Jeb Blount in Rio de Janeiro at jblount@bloomberg.net; Paulo Winterstein in Sao Paulo at pwinterstein@bloomberg.net Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=awPpKl_jHRVw .
. June 13, 2008 SouthAmerica: I just finished talking with my cousin Marina Andrada in Brazil. She is the historian of the Andrada Family, and she has 8 published books to her credit about our family history. Tonight she is having a book-signing event in Barbacena, state of Minas Gerais and about 400 guests including many VIPâs and a large number of members of the current Andrada Dynasty in Brazil will be present at this event â the most influential people in Minas Gerais state will be attending this historic event. Marina Andrada chose this special date for her latest book-signing event also to commemorate Jose Bonifacio de Andrada e Silvaâs birthday, since Jose Bonifacio was born on June 13, 1763. She told me that most of the Andrada Clan will be present at this event tonight, and that the new generation of Andradaâs are looking forward to hear her book presentation since they want to learn more about this particular book; a book that covers the history of this branch of the family and its impact on the history of the state of Minas Gerais. Marina Andrada herself can be considered a family treasure â she is 90 years old and she has the memory of someone half her age â when you speak to her she is like a live encyclopedia since she remembers a ton of events in detail going back 100 years, with names, what happened and so on⦠I had a long talk with my cousin Marina also about our family and what is in store for our family in the future. I am sure she will have great success tonight, and Jose Bonifacio would be very proud of having among his descendents an outstanding person such as Marina Andrada. .
Brazil is way overrated. When this commodities boom is over Brazil is finished. The gap between rich and poor in Brazil is one of the highest in the world. The relatively well off live behind bullet-proof doors because of the socio-economic strife in the country. People like southamerica need to get a life and stop posting this crap about how much better Brazil is.
. June 14, 2008 SouthAmerica: In the Brazzil magazine website one of the members asked me a few questions and also if Marina Andrada wrote a book about the Revolutions of 1922 or 1964. Here is my answer: I believe that Marina Andrada is the only great great granddaughter of Jose Bonifacio de Andrada e Silva (The Patriarch) who still alive â she is part of the 4th generation. My grandmotherâs grandfather Jose Bonifacio de Andrada e Silva (O Moco - 1827 to 1886) era irmao do avo de Marina Andrada â Antonio Carlos Ribeiro de Andrada (1836 to 1893). All the politicians of the Andrada Family that have been monopolizing the political scene in the state of Minas Gerais for the last 150 years â they are all descendents of this particular grandfather of Marina Andrada. Marinaâs father had been vereador in Barbacena, then Deputado Federal representing Minas Gerais, and later he was Brazilian ambassador in various countries including the US and France. Because her father was ambassador Marina had the opportunity to live in many countries and meet through her father a lot of important people over the years. Her brother also was an important figure in Brazilian politics Jose Bonifacio Lafayette de Andrada (nickname Zezinho) (1904 â 1986) â He was Deputado Federal da UDN (1945) and president of the Camara dos Deputados (1968) â he was reelected in 1970 and finaly gave up political life in 1979. Today Bonifacio Jose Tamm de Andrada is serving his 7th term as Deputado Federal for the state of Minas Gerais and he is also the Reitor Unipac an important institution of higher learning in the State of Minas Gerais â this important university with 55,000 students has been created and managed with the efforts of the Andrada family. You can read about Unipac here: http://www.unipaclafaiete.edu.br/teste/reitor/index.php?dir=artigos&artigos=f&pagina=bonlaf http://www3.unipaclafaiete.edu.br/ul2/layout_01/ Bonifacio Jose Tamm de Andrada was a son of Deputado Jose Bonifacio Lafayette de Andrada â and Bonifacio Jose Tamm de Andrada has 4 sons also involved in politics in the state of Minas Gerais. And the new generation of 20-year olds, in that branch of the family, is also taking their first steps towards their new career in politics. Going back to your question: I have only the last 2 books that Marina Andrada had published and they are great since she documents a lot of things that happened to all these politicians with pictures and letters, and copy of many documents. She did a terrific job on her books. Over the last 60 years she accumulated a lot of material related to the Andrada Family since friends and relatives, and other people when they found letters, documents, pictures, and had interesting stories to tell her about something related to the Andradas â all these people sent her all this material that became an important repository of Brazilian history. Since Marina Andrada lived her entire life among politicians, ambassadors, and all kinds of important people not only in Brazil, but also in other countries around the world â I can hear her tell stories for hours. Every time we talk on the telephone we end up talking for 2 or 3 hours â she has an amazing memory she tells me stories one after another about the politics in Brazil of the 1920âs, and 1930âs in detail and she remember the dates and all the people involved in the events â she talk about events in the early 1900âs as if the events had happened yesterday â I donât know how she manage to recall the names of so many people and all the detail of the stories from a time long gone. I am sure that she knows very well about the revolution of 1930 when regional leaderships in several states dissatisfied with the state of São Paulo's political dominance for the last 100 years joined together in opposition and they placed Getulio Vargas in power and she also must know in detail the story of Luiz Carlos Prestes and his failed 1922 tenente rebellion against the coffee oligarchs. The great depression also helped to create the economic environment that gave the opportunity of someone such as Getulio Vargas to rise into power. Getulio Vargas had the right ideas and during his tenure he did a lot of good things for Brazil. I would put Getulio Vargas on the category of benevolent dictators. My family the Souza Queiroz and the Andradas had dominated political life in the state of Sao Paulo and in Brazil for over 100 years up to the early 1930âs - Only the Minas Gerais branch of the Andrada Family still going strong to this day in Brazilian politics. You can see the Andrada Family tree on this website: http://www.camara.gov.br/bonifaciodeandrada/dinastia.html The new generation of Andradas is very close to the current governor of the state of Minas Gerais â Aecio Neves â and they have been friends since they were kids. Aecio Neves is the grandson of former president Tancredo Neves. In 1987, Neves was elected to the Federal Chamber of Deputies (House of Representatives) from his home state of Minas Gerais and served until 2002. He was president of the Chamber of Deputies (Speaker of the House) in 2001. He was elected governor of Minas Gerais in 2003. Today, Aecio Neves is considered a strong potential candidate for the 2010 Brazilian Presidential Elections. .
. Chris 12000: Brazil is way overrated. When this commodities boom is over Brazil is finished. ***** June 14, 2008 SouthAmerica: Your comment shows that you don't have a clue about what is happening in Brazil today - and around the world for that matter. Besides, in one of your postings you were defending the Bush administration and that kind of comment gives me a hint about your judgment about things, and your comment about Brazil is to be taken with a grain of salt. .
Brazil is enjoying a tremendous boost nowadays. The results speak for themselves, and their natural reserves just keep piling up as they develop further. Sure, the socioeconomic problems are enormous as well in Brazil - and they lack the basic land reform still. Crime is off the charts with disillusioned poor people cramming the big cities and infrastructure stretched to the breaking point with the large city populations who are not contributing with paying significant income tax. They tax products and consumption more in Brazil - like Thailand. Well, will a downturn for commodities hurt Brazil in some way ... yes, sure it will. It will hurt the big exporters and the richest people - who are so rich they don't care anyways. The poor people contribute little to the economy, but here is the kicker ... The economic good times have actually made Brazil take millions of these poor people and lift them up to lower middle class and proper middle class. This of course means that Brazil is strengthening it's economic longevity prowess. Salaries are also rising - albeit they are still very low. The currency has been pretty stable for the last few years - but interest rates are still some of the highest in the world. Brazil has a huge agriculture sector which looks to become more and more important as well. Saying that Brazil will suffer greatly in the near future is just hogwash, since they are also ridding themselves with international debt in these economic good times here. The change with globalization and the recent misfortune in the US where they are not seen as a crucial partner any longer with alternatives like Russia, China, India etc spurring strong growths - has made power and capital movements permanent. They're not coming flowing back to the US - which mean the US is becoming poorer and Brazil is becoming richer. It's really that simple. Sure, there are people pumping the brazilian image out there - just as there are people trying to convince markets that the US is soon out of it's economic slump - with record deficits etc for the next coming generations to take care of. Getting to understand the big picture is important - and many see to be clinging on to loser positions - even on a global scale. Learn to adapt if you want to succeed.