I wouldn't be so optimistic now especially when the market is so thin around this time. Besides, there wasn't much demand for gold around Christmas period this year either. Even hedge funds have dumped gold positions recently. So the current price rise in gold could be a temporary reaction to weak Japanese inflation data. You need to do fundamental analysis first before you make your trading decision. TA alone is not enough. The following news article which came out yesterday might help you make better trading decision. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...l/news-story/a50e171faca85b2dab08044468588bac Gold prices have risen to a near two-week high on weak Japanese inflation data, but trading was thin with traders in the US returning after the long Christmas weekend and London markets still closed. Most analysts believe broad concerns about European banks and uncertainty around US president-elect Donald Trump’s policies is likely to support gold prices in 2017. However, the price of gold could tumble over the near term if US bond yields continued to climb, they said. Spot gold was up 0.5 per cent at $US1139.42 ($1586) an ounce after hitting its highest level since December 14 at $US1148.98 an ounce. Last night spot gold was trading at $US1141.60 an ounce. US gold futures ended the session 0.45 per cent higher at $US1138.80 per ounce. Data showed Chinese industry racked up its strongest profit growth in three months in November, suggesting the world’s second-largest economy was improving. In Japan, however, core consumer prices fell in annual terms for the ninth month as household spending slumped. “Maybe a top is in on Japan’s growth and with that you could start to see stimulus measures and that’s why gold and silver ticked up,” said Phillip Streible, senior commodities broker for RJO Futures in Chicago. “I think with gold, we can realistically get back up to $US1250 an ounce in 2017,” Mr Streible said, adding that equity markets were possibly due for a correction. Equity markets in the US were higher on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average resuming its climb towards 20,000 and the Nasdaq hitting a record. Gold’s gains were limited by a strong dollar. The US currency surged to a 14-year high against a basket of major currencies earlier this month after the Federal Reserve boosted the number of projected interest rate hikes for 2017. A firm dollar curbs demand for commodities priced in the greenback by making them more expensive for holders of other currencies. “People are waiting until Trump becomes the US president and until we see his real policies or what he will do when he takes office,” said Yuichi Ikemizu, head of commodity trading at Standard Bank in Tokyo. “People are just watching the other markets like dollar and stockmarkets and kind of expecting the stockmarket and financial market to be good under Trump government. In that case, people don’t need gold and instead invest in stocks.” Among other precious metals, spot silver was up 1.6 per cent at $US15.965 an ounce.
Gold is essentially an anti-dollar trade. I don't see any reason for it to reverse the current course. When the recent lows were made, we were not aware of three or more FED tightenings. This is radically different from "one and done". I can only guess that what is keeping the markets so calm is waiting for Trump's fiscal policy message on inauguration day. @hajimow - good call, in any case. The strongest up move in about 4 months.
For once, i agree with you (I remember your short MCD... NO COMMENT) This call makes sense on a ST basis, and I bought heavily gold stocks during the last month. But I would not keep them too long. 1250 dollars = out. Are you more or less optimistic than me? CM
What next the gold ahead, weekly already on bullish candle figured while on daily also having tendencies to bullish
Salaam, Do you have an equally bullish stance on the Euro? The charts look very similar to me. Thanks.
I always sell covered call on my shares. i sold weekly covered call on 2100 shares that I have. strike of 115 for Jan 6th for 8 cents. Personally I predict GLD will close at 112.5 next Friday Jan 6th.
It does not mean that GLD will not go down. It means that I believe even if it goes down, it will drop less than stocks. Just check it today. Compare it with HD, AMZN, ADI,..... Basically I mean it is safer with a high possibility of bouncing back.
Too soon. It's going down even further in March. This is the drawback TA - they don't incorporate upcoming info. The US govt is determined to honour their words by hiking interest rate 3 times more. One evidence of that is the govt is going to impose tariff on importing products
I don't know how you work out the probability but incorporatong fundamental info, it's going down even more than your TA suggests