I keep cutting my winners

Discussion in 'Psychology' started by Wide Tailz, Sep 27, 2022.

  1. Seriously tempted to close all positions and wait out a retrace that I'm sure is on its way.

    Everything is looking good except UAN. Not quite at the puke point yet but getting concerned.

    +30 UCO

    *edit- the correct thing to do is add size on the first retrace, of course. Waiting to see if I have the guts to do this, when the time comes. :D
     
    #131     Oct 25, 2022
  2. Rams Fan

    Rams Fan

    I don't have anywhere else it would make sense to post this, but you mentioned you'd like others posting p/l.

    Here is a current SPY trade I have on. I bought 50 shares, then added 20 shares twice, and finally added 10 more shares for 100 total.

    I am following (trying to, anyway) Livermore's dictum: So long as the market is acting right, I'm not going to be in a hurry to sell. I don't have a forecast currently. There is the obvious 50-day moving average that all the CAN SLIM traders will be watching at $388. I am also mindful of the gap between the 9/12 close and the 9/13 open, which is $403 up to about $411. The 200-day moving average is up at that upper level today. I am watching for higher targets, but if the market turns sour, I will close and even reverse depending on context and signal.

    upload_2022-10-25_13-16-50.png

    Open trade p/l has ranged from about -$150 on the day to as high as +$525. That is the nature of swing trading. I have no stop in mind. Will judge the market day by day.
     
    #132     Oct 25, 2022
    Wide Tailz likes this.
  3. deaddog

    deaddog

    All today?
    Why not?
     
    #133     Oct 25, 2022
  4. Rams Fan

    Rams Fan

    I started buying Thursday and finished by the end of the day Friday.


    As long as the market is acting right, I will not be in a hurry to sell. I'll know the market isn't acting right long before it gets anywhere close to my average cost. If it takes back more than 50% of the rally and I am still long, I'll be looking to exit if price doesn't firm up.
     
    #134     Oct 25, 2022
    Wide Tailz likes this.
  5. Thanks for posting your positions.

    Had to scratch the itch, sold OXY for 20.70 total profit. Total closed profit so far: 414.27 :D
     
    #135     Oct 25, 2022
    Rams Fan likes this.
  6. deaddog

    deaddog

    If you don't give away any secrets, what triggered the buy on Thurs?
    Did you average down?
     
    #136     Oct 25, 2022
    Rams Fan likes this.
  7. Rams Fan

    Rams Fan

    I averaged up. I won't say I never average down, because sometimes I do stupid things. My plan only calls for me to add if price is already showing me a at least a small profit.

    On Thursday I bought late in the day, soon after 3:30PM. SPY was trading below the low of Wednesday and twice tried to go lower than 365 around 2:30 or so. Then it rallied above Wednesday's low, and it fell back again trying to go lower than 365. Again, it couldn't keep it below 365, so I bought my first pilot buy there. I added around 9:45AM on Friday. If you were watching at that time, you would have seen that big burst off the lows by the ES in the Globex. Then, right before 9:45, a flurry of buying came in and I added then. I finished the adds by buying some more after pulled back from the morning highs, probably right around 11 AM. Then the final add was when price broke Thursday's high.

    I don't keep secrets. I watch a weekly and daily when looking for swing direction. When I think it is time to stalk an entry, and I don't have an obvious place, such as a buy stop above a high, then I'll use the 30 minute and watch the price action. I look for bursts of activity, especially when price does the opposite of what it looks to be trying to do.

    On the daily, I was looking at Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday as a small bull flag. That is why Thursday afternoon I started paying closer attention as SPY was hanging out at Wednesday's low but not making any real effort to sell off. I'm not really a chartist but I do find them to be very useful tools. Maybe I am something of a chartist. What I really like to act on are those bursts of strong buying to get long, or bursts of strong selling to get short. I will use charts too though, and sometimes I take a position before there is an obvious burst.
    bull flag on SPY.jpg


    The moving averages are the 21 ema, and the 50 and 200 day simples.
     
    #137     Oct 25, 2022
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  8. Couldn't take it anymore. Sold DE at the swing high for 176 profit. Total closed profit 590.27.

    Probably going to have to buy it back soon. :(
     
    #138     Oct 25, 2022
  9. Real Money

    Real Money

    Nobody ever went broke taking a profit.
     
    #139     Oct 25, 2022
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  10. Rams Fan

    Rams Fan

    From Nicolas Darvas's How I Made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market

    upload_2022-10-25_15-57-37.png
     
    #140     Oct 25, 2022
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