I just laugh when I see inflation numbers..

Discussion in 'Trading' started by PohPoh, Jun 15, 2007.

  1. What matters is where your money goes and how you spend it.

    I can guarantee you my money is not going near as far at Kroger over the last year, prices on the staple things I buy are surging.

    You just have to keep in mind the markets are rigged, they are rigged to go higher. wallstreet goal every single day is to get the markets higher, lie cheat steal, just get the market up.
     
    #11     Jun 15, 2007
  2. Assuming they even got the numbers right (which I highly doubt - massive underreporting of inflation), this methodology is so suspect, it's amazing it was ever allowed to be used in lieu of the CPI number the government used to use:

    The less volatile measure of the PCE price index is the core PCE price index which excludes the more volatile and seasonal food and energy prices.

    In comparison to the Consumer price index, this index uses current period quantities as the weights ("chain-type") rather than some fixed bundle. Current personal consumption is measured in today's prices and then compared to current personal consumption at prices from a base year. This price index method assumes that the consumer has made allowances for changes in relative prices.


    So, they exclude food and energy (gas, utilities, etc). All they have to do now is exclude clothing, housing and medical care, and we go even lower on the PCE Core number. The markets would love that.
     
    #12     Jun 15, 2007
  3. To wrap up the 2 quarter you bet its possiable.
     
    #13     Jun 15, 2007
  4. Core is obviously less affected by components with high vol so to help provide a degree of confidence. Headline is useful as it contains all the fun bits.

    Dont agree that they were bad numbers inflation appears to be abating so the market is going HIGHER people maybe should stop calling for the mother of all crashes cause it aint going to happen.
    You guys are starting to resemble those guys on the street with the end of the world signs strapped to them.
     
    #14     Jun 15, 2007
  5. dhpar

    dhpar

    core is monitored to remove noise from permanent inflation trends, i.e. largely seasonality. nowadays however it is removing the trend itself. it is actually quite funny - it works like that:

    1. piles of money push commodities/food higher
    2. core stays low (due to many reasons) so Fed prints more money
    3. Go back to 1.
     
    #15     Jun 15, 2007
  6. kashirin

    kashirin

    so maybe it's some sort of bubblish interpretation?
    bonds up 0.3% in 10 days
    and market just discounts it
    looks like china #2
     
    #16     Jun 15, 2007
  7. This market is going up because Japan is giving away free money. That's the gist of it regardless how inflation number shows.
     
    #17     Jun 15, 2007
  8. Most Funds are raising hell lot of money in Japan; close to 50 billion in last couple of weeks; what do you expect the market will go?

    And 10 years BOJ bond is little more than 1.9%; and it still keeps its rate at 0.5%; and Japan still experiences deflation pressure; what joke. :D
     
    #18     Jun 15, 2007
  9. I'm patiently waiting to see signs of market weakness and something that will force the hand of the BOJ.

    Slowly accumulating Dec JPY calls.
     
    #19     Jun 15, 2007
  10. whats funny is most of the reason for the so called "benign number" is due to falling home prices... stripping away falling home prices i think the number would have been much higher...
     
    #20     Jun 15, 2007