This market is absurdly oversold. Its almost as bad as back in Oct according to historical statistics
Everytime I have gone long in a downtrend, my hat has been handed to me. Things that go down just keep going until they dont or they go bankrupt. In this case, major money center banks are collapsing. The FDIC is saying they are insolvent. Major motor car companies are saying they will go bankrupt in month. GE is insolvent. Do you think the indexes will turn around just because of you? We are in the middle of another Great Depression that is even worse then the last. The indexes will get slammed down like the Nikkei or the Nasday of 2000 never to return to those levels and to whither away into obscurity as America turns into the 3rd world... Your post only indicates to me that you are either listening to the band on the titanic or have this John Rambo complex. An iceberg has hit and its time to bail not to build.
According to historical statistics (are there any other kind?) the Dow only has a 59% chance of posting a white candle next week, despite this being the fourth consecutive down week. 59% > 50%, yes, but the margin is closer than one might think. I'm happy playing these odds, but it's not exactly something I'd leverage into.
No traders will hold stocks over this weekend after the jobs report. EOD will be red. GM could file any day now. Way to many surprises. Cut your losses. Maybe next week we will develop a tradeable rally on the long side. Not on a fri.........
Good chance this new low is a false breakout, got some buy stops for entries in place. Intra-day only of course. No way would I hold anything over the weekend.
I'm not usually one to flip my lid at a post that isn't in Politics and Religion. But I'll break precedent and tell you to STICK IT UP YOUR ASS. I just took out 65 ES points last week and this on a short. Did you? I lost a massive $1250 today-on a trade I could have made 3k in minutes, which means I gave back a little under 2% of my year. Wanna know how many trades I've made this year? FIVE.
I have a bid in around 6400 DJIA to add to a long position I have been scaling into (read: losing money on) since 7700. Sold some GS put verticals to make myself feel better, after I got burned doing the same thing a few days ago on JPM (expected 20 to be defended). If we see below 6000, I think we will see massive mutual fund redemptions as mom and pop are getting close to throwing in the towel (happens at >50% loss psychologically - my guess) and some sort of capitulative wave. I'll probably just play that in the futures market if we see a collapse. OTOH, some sort of fiat decree such as netting out or declaring illegal the CDS market might rally the market exceptionally. Hard to tell. Best I can figure is we will see a retracement to 8000 in this down channel. I'll watch closely at that time whether to close out or to get longer based upon price action. Wouldn't be surprised to see a red close again today, but I've set my price target and am holding firm. At least you can't say that this market doesn't get the juices flowing, to say the least. I may have to try to call the bottom too and change my name if I fail - that may be an ET tradition you just started, Pabst.