I just don't understand why...

Discussion in 'Trading' started by brownsfan019, Apr 17, 2007.

  1. I just don't understand why traders get stuck on a direction of the market (usually up or down) and then live or die with their prediction.

    Why bother trying to make a prediction as bold as - Dow down 100 pts tomorrow! or Just bought a ton of DIA puts! etc. etc.

    We'd all love to call the tops/bottoms consistently, but that will never happen.

    Why not just go with the flow and make some money? Why put your money at risk with predictions that are so bold and possibly risk so much of your account in order to do so?

    It's interesting to see the threads pop up when there is some volatility in the markets and the predictions start to come out...
  2. I agree. It's sad, isn't it? One thing is sure, anyone who has ever posted a thread such as the ones you described is a losing trader. Preconveived notions about direction don't work in the markets and simply cause people to see only what they want to see and ignore the rest...


  4. Mvic


    Last time I checked, other than selling time, your only options were to go long or short an instrument. If that doesn't require picking a direction in some time frame and some instrument then you must know something I don't.

    Don't you guys realize that statistically speaking someone picking an intermediate top on a weekly or monthly timeframe is no different than someone who thinks the trend will contnue. You can argue about the technical or fundamental merits of a call but just bashing someone for taking a short position at any given time doesn't make a lot of sense.

  5. Because it's all about wanting to stick out, stir up interest to kill time.

    If things go according to predictions, they make sure to come back and say, "I told you so!"

    On the other hand, if they get it wrong,it's "oh well" or they simply disappear for a day....

    It's just a matter of people being bored and wanting to draw attention to themselves....
  6. infooo


    you are being too general, OP was quite clear

    and I am surprised that you would make a comment like that considering how long you are on ET

    are you sure you know how to trade ??
  7. feb2865


    well think about this

    somebody has to be at the other side of the trade rigth??

    so let them come to us.....

    a guy said somewhere that he was shorting the dow today

    I guess some of that money is in my pocket now

    seriously, the market feeds from traders like this...if you think about it is the reality of the markets

    this is a zero sum game.

    I know a trader who shorted cable around 1.87 something on 10/26/2006

    he's still short on cable "hoping" that will come his way

    well look at cable now...2 bucks

    He said that cable will come down because is "oversold"

    wel...keep hoping....his money is long gone already

    just imagine how many people outhere "predicting" and anticipating or betting on a number

    As you say...go with the flow

    see, trading for me is support and resistance. I could never make an indicator to work. I simply can't deal with them.

    I trade the market. As simple as wait how the market is going to behave on these levels...three things are going to happen

    1) Market will brake the level( need comfirmation for this one and don't place your stops too close to the guns)

    2) Market will make a coil on the level, before taking any direction, if any

    3) Market will bounce off the level

    for whatever the market do, I will dance accordingly

    Once on a trade....three things will happen

    1)Market will make a coil (I hate it, test my patience but had no choice but to wait )

    2) Market will reverse my position (I get out quick and save my ass so I can have more chance of re-entry, if possible...or trading the next day after all the market isn't going anywhere)

    3) Market will go my way(mmmm love it)

    Here it is

    my strategy revealed

    never backtested by the way

    unless support and resistance goes out of style...if that happens then I quit...promise(Virgin, where are you???I made a promise)

    well, in so many years.....hasn't happened yet

    who knows

    the market can do whatever, is how you're going to react what matters

    but, if you're going to "wait" and "hold" while the market is screweing you..mmm good luck. Keep on waiting
    #10     Apr 17, 2007