Hi thanks for coming, I am a trend follower been to school and graduated long ago. BUT I am always researching, I love this field to death and for all you new people out there. You really gotta love this job to do it well. Anyway, fellas I stumbled across a unique trading method and I want your opinion. winning trades percentage is 95% when loss does occur it puts the portfolio in 35% draw down. This draw down is then easily offset by continuation of trading. account is guaranteed to grow but swings between profit and DD are large. I know you wouldn't trade such a system but what if I took 10 % of my funds and traded it. portfolio doubling in 3.5 months assuming liquidity is not a problem.
Thanks for the softball question. Given the data you provide, 3 consecutive losses of 35% would wipe out the account. I would want to know how likely it is that this would occur.. There are several methods for determining the statistical probability that this would occur. Just off the top of my head I would say the odds of three in row are about 17% Now I am going to go get some dinner Good luck Steve
that is way too high, in any case in my opinion it is worth the risk because because method delivers doubling in 3.5 months allocation of smaller funds to this is smart in my opinion
Without actually looking at the system, the result and methodology sounded like an overoptimisation of the system has occurred. To know this for sure, what are the results of the system test in a bull run vs in a bear market?
the system or method (I don't know what to call it) produces exactly the same results in bull or bear market. system is self adjusting, to well, everything.
time frame completely open to personal whim, I like 3min to 3 HR, % profit on the winning trades is about 3 % on average but it varies.