I've been in the market since 1985 and the tone is nowhere near as bullish as '85 - '87 and nowhere near as bullish as most of the '90's. Half of threads on this board are predicting a market crash within a few weeks (which is ridiculous). Plenty of people, on this board or elsewhere, are short and bearish. This is nothing like 1999.
i agree. just do the math -- these markets are barely up when you consider inflation and dollar devaluation. and while there are pockets of euphoria in the market, they aren't quite throwing a dart at the board. you have to be a little smarter than in 99.
The stock market grinds up with ever increasing bearish sentiment amongst traders. That tells me the US stock market is no where close to a top. Corrections are expected and are to be bought. US large cap stocks are no longer dependent on the American consumer since most of their income is derived from "overseas" markets. Add global inflation and increased consumerism in India and China. Large cap multinational stocks are undervalued. The US economy could go into a recession and still large cap multinational stocks will go higher on increased earnings. This market will not have a major correction until the end of 2008. Then 2 years sideways churn and then a global collapse like the 1930's to wash out the inflationary excesses. This will lead to global protectionist policies and a decade long global recession ( depression ? ) Now that you know what will happen, use the opportunity and the profit to plan for the chaos.
In the last couple of months there were voices stating how concerned they were because margin interest was steadily increasing. Now we know where the margin went. Many institutions or at least a few large enough funds must have been net short. They are the invisible bid under the market, they are the dip buyers. It's the fuel that drives us higher every day until it doesn't. Have seen it in commodities, happens there all the time just nobody takes note since it's not stocks.
So where's our favorite smart a**es Eprado and Allaces? Please tell us how easy it is to make money shorting strength and how someday (is it tomorrow? ) we bulls will blow up our accounts in a huge market downturn. Let's hear it. It never gets old. Always reminds me where the money comes from in these short squeezes!
In 1999, stocks went up like crazy. While stocks seem strong today, they are no where as near strong as they were in 1999. A lot of the market crash threads are just some college kids fooling around looking to get a start out of someone.
this trend is really simple. you can't keep increasing without the major funds taking some money off the table. SAC, and some of other major players in Greenwich, CT / NY are most likely aggressibely trading quarter-end. haven't you guys done the math, very few people move the dow - maybe less than 10 major funds - on a daily basis. Also, it's amazing how everyone here who is a "bull" can't see the potential danger of the oil rally, dow decline seasonal this summer. There is nothing more exciting than a bull rally into a trouble-prone 3 month summer stretch.