I haven't been trading for that long, but I can't recall such a bullish tone to media, popular sentiment, etc., as it relates to the U.S. equity markets, since 1999. I remember that time well. People I knew were planning on quitting their jobs because they could make so much more daytrading. I'm not making any parallels (i.e. I'm not saying sentiment is as bullish), but I think it's interesting, at minimum, and maybe even notable. Does anyone disagree with me that sentiment hasn't been this bullish since '99?
I don't notice anything of that sort. In some ways it seems people are rather bearish with everyone talking about housing and oil problems.
I believe its more bullish now, last bull run in the late 90s was bullish but a different kind of bullish sentiment, we had a major catalyst back in the late 90's driving tech to new heights. I look at the catalyst today and all I see is LIQUIDITY driving it. Today cnbc was running the dow 13,000 special all day long and actually talking about 14,000 as if its coming in the next few weeks. Everyone interviewed was more bullish then the next guy. It seems there is just sooooo much bullish sentiment out there that the market "HAS TO" move higher. The s&p 500 is only 2% from historical highs, im sure it gets their in sometime in the next 10 trading days. Also heard cramer say don't be surprised to see a 300 point move up in a single day. That will have many quitting their jobs to become full time day traders again. :eek:
Who is bearish, come on, turn on cnbc and find me a single bear that says this market is headed for 10,000. Everyone of them is more bullish than the next. YAHOO has a poll tonight asking whats next a. 14,000 b. 12,000 Last saw the poll 2 hours ago, 14,000 took the lead at 60%
I don't think it's really "frenzied" yet, though. Still a lot of people calling for a correction or not participating in the rally.
I'm not sure about sentiment but 1 thing I know for sure between market then and now is the fact that volatility in general nowadays totally sucks. There's also very little "range expansion" throughout the day which in great trading environments allow for huge daytrading profits to be made. In comparison, this market, especially in the last 6 mos is absolute shit compared to late '90s-2003. This market of today is more conducive to create and lull millions of future bag holders into believing the thing to do is once again to buy and hold.
From its bear market low of 7,286 in October 2002, the Dow has surged nearly 80 percent, far surpassing its January 2000 bull-market peak of 11,723. The broader S&P 500 index has posted similar gains, though it still remains about 2 percent below its all-time, Internet-bubble high of 1,520 reached in September 2000. Going on 5 years now in this bull market without any signs of a 10% correction.
agree, there is no volatility, would be nice to see some 1-2% drops here and there. All we get are straight runs up.