The odds of me picking a winning stock, using my model, are much greater than 50%. Others on this board have estimated it at around 80%. Actually, if you take my streak where I had 53 consecutive profitable trades with only 6 open losing positions during the streak, that would mean I was picking 90% winners. So it looks like Calvin Murphy and myself had about the same success rate. Which seems to make sense to me since picking winning stocks is actually easier than making free throws when you use my quantitative momentum model.
I also acknowleged that NFI was a good call. It was. But all his other stuff is BS. Pulease bring back the hairy photos!! Mrmmarket, your selling yourself short, the odds of you making a winning trade are over 90%, as long as your lying. Heck, make it 95%!
Ok so what's next? Where do you think the dow is headed from here? and since you asked for it, here it is....Mr.market is Back and is bigger, badder and hairier then ever!!!
This gets easy enough to distill given the voluminous content of the thread. Here's my go at it: Ernie Barsamian seems to be the kind of guy who thinks that playing the market means picking "hot" stocks, being proved right about his selections, predicting future prices, and wants to let others know it. Professional traders, who make up some of this thread, may or may not have above average egos, but they understand the markets as a different concept that has more to do with reacting to price rather than predicting it, that it's not about being right but about probabilities, more TA than fundamental analysis, and use of money management technique (position sizing, stop losses, et al) that runs apparently counter to Mr. Barsamian's MO. The spirit of Mr. Barsamian's website and posts suggest heavily the same character as those on Motley Fool, that being the world he comes from, regardless of any MBA. The problem with using screens a la Motley Fool, and what they don't seem to understand over there, is, when one selects equities based on criteria such as, 'top 100 stocks with best Relative Performance 26 weeks > narrow down to Top 50 with EPS up 10%' and so on, one ends up with issues that have already seen their big moves. By getting in at that point, one may end up riding whatever is left, and that may be somewhat profitable if there's anything left, but it's very late getting in. That may account for the miniscule returns, and large losses, evidenced by those practicing that mode of screen selection. (See http://backtest.org/ct/20030523.html for example. One of many weekly posts by someone who actually wrote a "backtesting" engine for the Motley Fool screens, and seemingly one of the top guys in their Mech. Investing forum. While equities have been rising as of late, this person has been losing... and losing for years. It should be noted in fairness that Mr. Barsamian's claims are favorable compared to those, even if his returns are not considered considerable. ) The other problem is that those screening methods only stop is a time exit of sorts, that is, you get out when the next screen run, which may be a month or a year later, no longer spits out the stock in question, which makes for a very risky trading procedure.
Of course it was a good call. Today I sold my position at 59.45. That's a 15.5% gain in 8 days. I now have 19 consecutive profitable trades of 15% or better. Now I get to make another pick to continue my streak. You will watch in awe as I accomplish the "impossible" task of 53 consecutive profitable trades, thus re-writing the text of every statistical book Mr. Jesse J ever studied. I am HUGE!!!
he's not ernie parmigian. He stole the identity from a guy named ernie who went to wharton. That's a fact. You ever not like a person, and in some sick, perverted way, you get even?. well, mr market doesn't like the real ernie, so he does this. You folks are too easily fooled. great picture TM, that's definitely mrmarket asleep. as for the market? I'm waiting for my favorite journal writer to give me a clue. When He says "neutral" or "bullish", then I know which direction I'm going!