I have bought Al Brooks' Trading Course

If that is what you believe, then it is no wonder TA "doesn't work" for you. I use TA in much of trading. I never feel like I am "making a guess" when I put on a position.

 

Everyone looks at charts (bar the Niederhoffer brothers). Even George Soros looks at charts! He even seems to be doing a bit of tech analysis on some charts in his book.

 

will update on this later

 

Of course you're making guesses based on probabilities when using TA.. Brooks says the probabilities are generally skewed 60%-40% in favor of the bulls or the bears, those odds make trading off of pure chart patterns without referring to other metrics tantamount to gambling.

 

Thanks for posting this. It gets to the crux of the issue I have with TA.

Yes you are making guesses but probabilities have nothing to do with it.

TA folks like using terms like probabilities and statistics when it comes to using TA.

The problem is probabilities ate specifically defined. TA is not and when it is, it fails to have any edge at all. See Aronson's evidence based TA.

You can not mix anecdotal evidence of success ( all ta folks) with specific and quantifiable terms like probabilities.

Ta folks either don't understand the terms or are using them to appear scientific or learned.

I find this quite disturbing.

On the other hand, if TA folks admit ( some do) that they are subjective in their use of charts via intuition or experience , i have no issue with this. But trying to make ta something it is not by saying some authority says --- is garbage.

TA is a pure art and has nothing to do with math or science. surf

 

what one feels and reality are often very different in the financial markets.

 

Absolutely true, and interesting 100% opposite of algo trading...which is all math, statistics and probability.

 

Great point, Wiz. The first step to success is to think right about the markets--- if folks did that first, threads about internet marketers and their pretty charts and hindsight psychobabble wouldn't even exist. surf

 

Dude, I don't even know why you posted that you'd purchased Al Brooks' course. As always, the same assorted can of mixed nuts come out.

 

So a 60% chance of a profitable result.

Making a trade with these odds once using all capital would be a gamble. But using a small fraction of capital and repeating hundreds of times would lead to near certain success.