I see three things. I see where I stayed out according to my rules, I see where I traded successfully following my rules, and I see where I traded badly, which is where I'll spend this post. I faded pullbacks on higher time frames without checking the FX upcoming events (maybe Brooks is right about sticking to one time frame)...like GREEK PARLIMENTORY ELECTIONS while trading the EURUSD. Now admitting that is embarrassing, I do so to let others know I'm not totally glued to Brooks (I have other experiences that sometimes work, and sometimes don't). (He has indicated that he doesn't trade regarding news, and doesn't trade just ahead of it...I totally failed to even check)...and though long at the TL, then flipping to short after the TL break, was oblivious to the fact that the election was Sun. I was still fixated on Yellen not raising rates, and looking at the inverse relationship to the dollar with the EURUSD and seeing the pullback as buyable using support regions on the higher frames...including the daily, until it went off the cliff around noon...after covering my short after the TL break ( a good play in hindsight...could have been a monster), I went back to scaling into higher time frame support areas long, even though they were getting obliterated. I eventually checked the events calendar, stopped trading, and did my books. I had my worst day of the month...and I'm going to go as far as saying this because this is an educational thread. The biggest fuck up of my horrible trading yesterday was this: I refused to see what my eyes were telling me. The news wasn't even relevant, to be honest. The price charts told the entire story. I allowed myself to become biased by a news event (FOMC). Regardless of one's system, one should never allow ones' self to become biased by anything outside of the parameters of their individual system. For those who have followed my posting in this thread: I'm now down 5% in my DT account...rounded. I ate 1.5% on what started out as a pretty good day. That said, I was out long before my catastrophic stop was even in play, but I'm a guy who makes between a tenth to a quarter per cent on my winning days, so...OUCH. I have a different strategy for scaling against the trend, but I violated my size rules doing that, too. These are the issues I'm in the process of eliminating, and another lesson is now in the books. Anyway J, if you didn't catch my post edit, I had seen your OCHL chart, and if you go back to the two daily charts I posted next to each other (2nd and 3rd charts), my point was to show that if your vertical bars were based on either one of those two brokerages, they would have been different. I wasn't intending to get into different styles of trading, but how a single style could be drastically altered by such differences. Further back in this thread, I showed the same discrepancy on a 15' chart from two brokerages that would have affected the entry...perhaps I should not be using charting from different brokerages. By the way, I'm enjoying some of the ideas you've brought to the thread. Now I get to listen to all the great traders tell me how my strategy is a loser, though I haven't completely described it. Flame away, brothers and sisters! I'm out...have a great weekend flame throwers, great traders, bad traders, wannabes, fakes, and everyone else. Trading isn't everything, but it sure as hell is challenging!
Cool! Yeah, i caught my first musky in the ottawa river. Just went peacock bassin in the blue lagoon near miami airport. Those things fight harder than any other freshwater fish i have caught. surf
Cool!!!! Good eating, too: Musky teeth are only surpassed by piranha, no? Steel leaders on those lines are the order of the day. Awesome fighters, but I think the bass I've caught over the years jump more...IMO. (Full disclosure, I only caught a baby musky at Big Round Lake, Wisconsin as a tyke.)
WK, I think you are correct about different brokers, so you use the one that works for you and dump the others - but read on! Similar issue - when you think about the NYSE stock exchange and the big bell being rung at 09:30, would you not think that one of the biggest brokers in the game, namely IB, would allow you to add this price to your watch-list column - but they don't, can you believe that!!!!!!!! Anyone here from IB please feel free to correct me, as I gave up asking IB to FIX IT I know that IB allow you to put the "Open" price in the watchlist, but it is not the NYSE ding dong open price - just in case IB think I am a complete idiot! I also think that IB change this "Open" price at a specific time of day - I really don't believe I am saying this, but it is what I have discovered! This shows me a few things about IB. 1. They don't give a damn about the retail accounts - obviously..dohhhhh 2. The "big" account traders who mostly trade OPM don't even look at this - this tells me a lot about them and what they actually do with all the OPM! 3. Sometimes you have to use 2 brokers, especially when the broker you are with will not listen to what you are asking them for - a basic piece of market data that is readily available from any decent broker!!!!! I have now forgotten what you said J_S Oh yes, news and charts. Ignore upcoming major news events at your own peril - just look at any chart for last fomc announcement. Charts - the chart is your best friend, treat him with respect and he will always respect you - mess him around and he will ruin you financially!
Thanks for your thoughts. I agree about news events. I've kicked my own ass, and told my wife repeatedly I should have read the events calendar before initiating the strategy for Fri. I had a very discouraging event occur Thu night in my other career (won't go into that presently) that may have distracted me...another rule of mine...DON'T TRADE WHEN OUTSIDE EMOTION IS PEAKING...but I can assure you, I would either have not traded or have been only looking at the shorts (great setups all day on the lower frames) had I known about the Greek elections (remember, I only trade EURUSD currently). Who would want to be long into that, but maybe a gambler? (just my opinion...best to be flat or staying in the 5 to 15' range for me as the short patterns occurred, but ABSOLUTELY flat at the close Fri). Anyway, thanks again for your thoughts and ideas, J. Best trading to you next week, and look forward to more discussion then. Now to the añejo tequila, cold beer, and burgers!
One thing I noticed in this thread is the continual references to "timeframes" like 1m, 3m, 5m, 1h etc and the analysis of the sequential bars, context surrounding them, etc - all pretty standard stuff. However time doesn't move price - volume does. IMO if you want a more reliable chart (atleast from a pattern/clarity perspective) one should be using volume-based charts when available (unfortunately an issue with fx) - particularly if you trade futures in different sessions. Naturally the absolute highs and lows of price are the same using time, tick, or volume bars - but the latter filter out a ton of time based noise/jitter (e.g. lunch hour) by compressing movements during low volume periods.
One can make money consistently..., using only standard stuff - correctly There a billion dollar industry to convince us otherwise (and by all appearances - they're pretty effective) ================ True - but price movement happens over time..., and..., certain things repeat every day.., at certain times Ignoring time is akin to sticking one's head in the sand ================ There is no one way..., only our own unique way ===================== Just a little food for fodder.., or thought RN
To be fair RN I'm not saying to ignore time. Myself I'm fully aware of when different sessions are opening and closing and prepare accordingly. What I'm saying is that bar pattern analysis on bars that have been split by *time intervals* doesn't really mean much unless volume is constant - which it almost never is. Onviously if one sees a single 5m bar rip off into space it means something but I'm not really talking about that - more so using volume to filter out the large periods of dead noise.
Go Steelhead fishing if you make it up to Lake Ontario/Salmon River area in upstate NY in the winter. I think I remember you saying you fished for Salmon up there. Steelhead are by far the best fighters I have ever caught in freshwater. They spend half the battle in the air. I used to go up there and fish Lake Ontario area a lot when I lived up north. It's freezing but doing a float trip down the river for steelhead is a wild experience.