There is some truth here, WRB. No doubt about it. However, technical analysts ( according to most all authorities on the subject) believe price is all that is needed to be succesful in the market. This is just the way it is from TA's modern father charles dow to today. No amount of rhetoric can change the core belief of TAers. Here is it in simple form from stock charts. http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:overview:technical_analysis
You know and I know that the next time Michael Jordan gets ask about how champions are made...we know there's more to it than just "hard work" no matter how many times he keeps saying "hard work"...we just know there's more to it than that. Thus, what's the point of debating with every discretionary trader at this forum that uses TA/PA or about those like Al Brooks that briefly talks about risk management but spends most of his time talking about his trade methods ??? Note: You're on record in saying TA/PA could work with other things as your friend Timothy Sykes is doing. Tim himself has stated he's not an automated trader. He's discretionary. In contrast, if Al was (he is not) an automated trader using some kind'uv a TA/PA code...then you have a foundation for your debates because it strikes deep into your belief that a trader can't use such profitably when applied scientifically without being used with anything else. The truth is that you continue debating with discretionary traders and/or about discretionary trading but you consistently do not go into the automated trader threads. I will always find that strange because they are the ones that say TA is objective versus the subjective traders you keep debating with. Note: There's another debate at the forum here that even automated traders uses "some" discretionary in their trading...when use their system and when not to use it. Seriously, automated traders believe TA is objective, can be coded, black box...they believe its a science and they apply it as such. This has been your entire thesis of argument at this forum...TA can not be proven to work scientifically. There must be a reason why you don't debate with the traders here that have automated their TA/PA...the ones that truly use it in a scientific way ??? Reminder, Al Brooks uses an indicator called moving average in his trade method. That alone should tell you to read between the lines when he calls himself a PA trader. This thread has now ran its course for me...Good Night.
Moving averages are part of price, as are all other TA indicators--- TA people believe that all known information is already inherent within the price therefore price is all that is needed ( including smoothed averages and other indicators, i thought that was a given) All one needs to do is look at how long systems stay profitable on collective 2 to make the observation that most fixed ta systems quickly fail. No need to debate the fact among true believers. Can TA work some of the time during certain market conditions, when combined with outside knowledge--- no doubt about it--- see tim sykes as evidence but even Tim applied it to bogus companies as a prerequisite for it to work. TIm had to KNOW that the company was bogus and undergoing a pump and dump first before applying the TA--- ---- does it work across the board by itself, no way! Is it a trap for those who are true believers in it, yes, absolutely. Do traders need to exercise extreme caution when looking at charts to make decisions without any other outside data, yes. are there successful traders who only use TA currently--- I never met one othe rthan internet aliases who vanish whenever identity or facts are asked. surf
Technical analysis in-and-of-itself is not just a trap for people who believe in it, or appear to believe in it fully, and sell it to the public. TA can easily and attractively be used as a marketing tool--it shouldn't be allowed to be marketed with irresponsible claims suggesting it alone will lead to, or even has any correlation, with profitability.
You could argue that about anything though...fundamental analysis, value investing, statistical analysis etc. You would be surprised at how many traders/investors are unprofitable using other methods than technical analysis.
At least there is a scientific basis behind stat analysis. Value and fundamental have common sense reasons why they can work. On the other hand, TA's premise that an edge can be derived from simple observing past price patterns is just plain silly. surf
Basis for TA is human behaviour tends to remain the same hence you have repeating (loosely defined imo) patterns. Sounds like common sense to me. To go to the nth degree with this thinking is not a good idea e.g. the guys who like to look at 5 sec bar chart...but then again looking at fundamentals to the nth degree is a bit silly as well. Thinking in terms of the essentials is the best way forward imho.
TA, when marketed by daytrading salesmen, is also used as a distraction away from important issues that can prevent even a TA "market wizard" from being profitable, like reaction time, quick thinking, ability to control emotions, to not vacillate between ideas too much to prevent overtrading or indecisiveness, etc. I think the fact that Brooks hyper-focuses on TA mastery leading to profitability is why the argument appears so cogent that he is not a profitable trader.