When it gets volatile like this most guys are too busy during the day to post. It becomes a night and weekend thing. People with winning strategies usually keep quiet for the most part. It's usually the guys struggling who post 15 times a day. As far as how guys are doing now, the handful of traders I talk to are having a monster run right now.
I have to assume they are trading at the 15 minute timeframe and greater if they are having a "monster run" in these HFT-dominated markets.
I've been hearing for those using charts, different types of traders via different time frames (1min to daily) had a huge August. Also been hearing some guys that don't use charts had a big August too. They use bid/ask/DOM screens. Just the same, I've been hearing many have lost their shirts, blowups when that type of volatility caught them off guard...usually the new folks that haven't seen something like that or never traded in such. Will be very interesting next week (a FED rate week) if something happens out of China during next week too. Should be a repeat of the volatility.
Would you say this EURUSD move was dominated by HFT's? I would. These are 3 different frames of the same move. Which do you think was the most tradable? If you got in at the top of the prior bear bar on the 5 (the first chart below), your actual risk would have been 12 or 13 pips depending how you deal with the spread, as of the close of the big bar, using Brooks style. You would have had to enter before the close of the big trend bar though. (I got burned on Wed doing that on an outside down 15' bar that became an outside up bar in the last minute.) This move was 61 pips from the BO trend bar above the 10am bear bar to the high at 11:55 am cst. Below is the 1 min. Many pullback entries on the 1 minute using Brooks' style (or at least my interpretation of his style). This looks the most tradable to me. It looked pretty good on the 15, as well.
I would also add this: What caused the HFT's to actually line up on one side of the trade more than the other? And more importantly to a retail day trader, does it matter? Just an aside: It is also of note that ZH had an article about this move. Pretty funny, actually, if you've been following their take on the GS calls on the instrument over the last few years, (slain Kermit and deer in the headlight pics, etc... ) http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-11/eur-surges-despite-goldmans-insistence-bounce-over
They aren't scalpers so the whole HFT really has no impact on them. Most of them are day traders who adapted to the whole HFT thing. As far as time frames...some guys hold things for a few minutes, some guys a few hours. With a lot of traders out there when volatility kicks in, trading gets a lot better. While I think that HFT are basically parasites, I pay no attention to that stuff. I trade only futures so I don't think it's as bad/noticeable as in equities. Back when I started it was the specialists who everyone bitched about. Then when I started trading futures in 1993 it was the floor traders/brokers I would hear people complain about. Then it became the HFT guys. I might be off my rocker, but to me trading is trading. Either adapt to what's going on or go do something else.
Great point. To people who never traded through 2008's insanity or before this recent volatility could wipe them out. If you have never traded ES with 80+ point intra-day ranges then you could get hurt, especially if you are stubborn. Aug 24th could have been a doozy for some. I imagine it was.
I'm no expert here, but I'm not sure why you think this is High Frequency Trading. In my opinion, HFT is the type of move that happens in seconds when price moves counter-trend to the prevailing trend, and especially around key levels that others might be watching. What this does is run stops, and usually leads to a very quick reversal of this HFT orchestrated move. In other words, price might be in an uptrend, all of a sudden is pushed down, and as it drops, there are lots of limit order waiting to go long that are filled. Price recovers to the point of just before this little downdraft, and continues climbing. What this accomplishes is taking out the weak hands as they say. You have to wonder why price would drop for a just seconds, and why it could recover so quickly... ie. why are all those buy orders waiting there. If I see a little mini plunge, the last thing I want to do is start buying, unless of course I know that the little mini plunge is orchestrated. If a move is huge, like 61 pips, especially if it breaks out above a range, then this is simply lots of buying. Yes its buying mostly by algos I would assume since computers do much of the trading, but when I think of HFTs, I think of moves designed to screw the retail trader who is tight with stops and might be nervous or not sure of where price is going.
I agree, though I think the HFT's never stop, regardless of the state of the market. Certainly micro gains and losses were being made all through the break out, but other buy and sell programs were absolutely involved which were most likely the dominate force. Point taken. I'm not an expert, either. I'm less concerned with what's causing the move. Just glad it's occurring. Mostly wanted to show that the HFT trading doesn't limit a trader to the 15 or higher. I mean, look at that 1 minute chart! One of the things I like about Brooks is he talks about stop runs being exactly where some of the best traders will place limit orders to fade where they think those runs will occur.
Oh I don't doubt that, and most of what I know or think about algos and such I got from reading a few of NoDoji's posts. Most don't talk about it here, and so its hard to really find out anything about the subject. Since most also only watch 1 min bars or higher, they also don't pay much attention to it. But ND has said in a round about way that when you see trends, all it means is that algos are programmed to start buying. They have to do it in little chunks throughout the day... they also have to let price fall to give the impression that the trend is over so that other traders sell their own stuff to them at a lower price, but it really is the algos, and hence institutions that are making price move. The way I see it is that algos are responsible for getting from point A to point B, and the HFT's figure out a way to exploit the path on the way there.