@BobbiDigital: This all sounds discretionary. You should try to convert it to mechanical if you can. That would not only simplify/amplify testing, it would enhance your execution as well. Disclose nothing about your strategy at this time. Just keep in mind that if you can't automate it, proving its viability to a potential partner will be difficult.
Casino red/back is roughly 49% chance of winning, Do you know a way to till the odds on that ? When people age, not only do they lose time, they also lose the ability to reason. That somehow makes gambling more attractive. Only recently my elder bro asked me to help him tilt the casino odds. That got me very frustrated. I wanted to help him but I also knew it was futile. From my study of the markets, the price always moves to take out the high and lows because either actual stops are there or stops are estimated to be there. What can you do to tilt the odds against that ? Why should the market maker not choose to move the price to the actual or estimated stop locations since this is how they get their yacht money ?
Red or black is 48.6% on European roulette but only 47.4% on American roulette. I suspect most traders aren't playing with odds much better than this. Interesting aside: in days of yore at certain casinos, some sharpies figured out that red slot paint was stickier than black slot paint and bet accordingly, but I suspect that "edge" is long gone.
Buy support/sell resistance, always catch the 2nd wave away from S/R, the measured move. The whole patience thing.
Dynamic organisms have their own internal clock. Therein lies an edge to be sure. And I'll stop there. BD
No, don't stop there. Tell me more about your time based holy grail. If it's good I might want to collaborate.
It's a common mistake to expect ourselves to perform better than we can be. It's not really that hard to make money short-term when we're 100% focused. But staying 100% focused all the time is hard/impossible for most people. We're mistake-making machines. If you can make a normal number of mistakes and still be net-positive, then you have a real edge. I for one cannot make money consistently without a computer to do the dull stuff.
The Third wave of Elliott is suppose to have the biggest range of the five waves, but this of course depends so much of many other factors, weekly trend, daily trend, where is the present in other timeframes. That is why when one looks at like ES seeking out the third wave, it often comes out much short of what they expected. Even if the third wave was 50% of the time biggest wave of the three, again, depending on what part of the day is an issue, morning session, 90 minutes often has two swings, but then going into 3.25 hours of lunch might have a trend up/down and sometimes impossible to be able to see waves period if it is forming a Megaphone, range bound, then afternoon is the killing zone for retail to get screwed the worst normally, so risk has to be more that usually what profit can be had and waves are even more complex to find those three trending waves. ES is wonderful at breaking previous pivots by couple ticks to sucker in the uneducated then Brokerage comes in to push other way till retail get stopped out, so true Elliott is so much tougher to just see three waves. Down waves are so much different that up waves as far as range and especially in volume. And Confirmation of end of wave two doesn't happen until you min. of third of wave three has started in my opinion. Just easier to wait for Head & Shoulders pattern where head to second wave is right shoulder, and right shoulder is secondary possible pivot, ie failed attempt to going lower/higher in continuation of trend. That is why wave one is small, it often confuses many thinking it is a corrective swing when it is the start of new trend, Volume is often first noticeable element to watch, volume normally becomes larger near lows whereas decreases near highs in ES. I just find it easier to find swing extremes to counter-trade after seeing two pivot highs broken and average swing in points, 7-11pts and decreasing of volume at highs. Can also look for where the closes are in relationship to highest high, if it is within high/close to me considered weak, resistance. Yeah, I read all that on the back of Count Chocula cereal over the weekend, so mees now an export, ROFLMAO, I am weird to start with but 2:15 in morn watching silver making me nuts.