Well, no. The idea is to catch something before it happens. Otherwise what's the point if there's no benefit for the trader?
You're the one not getting the gist, I'm afraid. You even confirm what I'm saying when you say we had limit down days on those days, but not on Thursday. I'm specifically referring to a strong gap down which simply sells, sells and sells throughout the entire day without a significant reversal on the Open or later in the day. Several of the days you mentioned opened gap up on the day and the one who opened strongly gap down had a huge up move right off the Open. There were days earlier this year who closed down far more than Thursday. I never said anything else.
Is that so? And don't say it didn't close on highs so a week Friday's ES day was not a strong trend one. Plenty others out there too.
Do you have a reliable way to determine this ahead of time, say mid-day? As with most things, I can find 100 examples of something and 100 on the contrary.
You said two things in original post. I was replying to the first. Though the chart I posted previously clearly shows the globex overnight trend (range 72.75 pts) continued with barely a pullback (10.75 pts or 14.6%) in the early regular session - before moving 42 points higher into HOD. Then in afternoon trading sideways till close. Price action is how to "know".
Alright, so at 10am you're decided that it's a "trend day" and trade that side? I'm asking for actionable information.
I’m not sure you understand what I was talking about. I was referring to retraces to MA in small pullback bear trends or small pb bull trends. in your case the chart is simply a broad bear channel broad enough to have legs of trends within it. Your just channel trading. Going long at the bottom and exit/reversing at the top of the trend channel line. Copy and paste your yellow line at the bottom of the chart. It is all range trading. A channel is a range. Just a tilted range. You are just trading a trend (blue line) withIn a bear channel. This has nothing to do the concept of Holding a position then adding on to that position on retraces during a SPBT ( small pullback trend). Or in the case of a SPBR (small pullback bear trend) Averaging down on retraces then exit on new lows followed by then by waiting for another retracement to enter again at a higher up point than your last exit thus compounding instead of just staying in. yes get in long at the bottom of the bear channel. I typically will exit before it reaches the top then when it gets in the top 1/3 I will start shorting averaging in building a position for when it hits your yellow libe and reverses south. As far as what do I think will happen when it hits yellow line? Chances are it will reverse south but it could BO north and keep going. But i would be betting it is going south when it hits that yellow line and so I fade the blue trend when it reaches outer limit of the channel (Yellow). That is if I had gotten in at the bottom of the channel and traded your blue trendAnd held to the top I would exit At the yellow Line reverse and go short.
There was a pullback before and into initial open period (920am-935am), then price traded higher than Globex high. Trend was determined during globex and as I said after initial open pullback trend continued.
Actionable info? Look at the previous size of the PB’s from the left side of his gray box as price draws out the chart to 10 a.m. There are at least 8 PB’s ..all tiny except that last multi-leg pb Starting around 0400 to 0600 before the big spike up around 10:00. From left side of box from 20:00 on up EVERY ATTEMPT by the bears to reverse the move up failed. Most pb were small. So the pb at 0400 is likely to NOT be a reversal even if a deeper PB. The footprints to the left show bulls are winning. To gauge whether that 0400 to 0600 deeper multi-leg pb is a reversal south or just a deeper pb I would look at all the previous pb’s If they are tiny then 0400 to 0600 is likely not a reversal but bears pushing hard AND bulls profit taking from the previous move up. That is, it is likely just a bull flag that will be followed by continuation on up, which it did do around 10:00. Other bullish factors: 1) look to the left of his gray box. See that high Around 11:00? Now look to the low of the deepest pb (0400 to 0600). That deepest pb could barely get close To closing the gap. Then price resumes up. So, we got a new high from a previous strong swing high About 80 bars back (just guessing) that hold And then resumes. 2) more bull bars from left of box to 10:00 than bear bars 3) more bull bars in sequence that bear bars in sequence from left of box to 10:00 4) gaps between bull bars...urgency. (Gaps between close of one bull bar and the close of the prev bull bar..between high ‘s of two bull bars, between low of one bull bar and high of prev bull bar or two bull bars back. 5) big picture a definite successful BO of sideways ranging behavior prior to his gray box. That is usually good for at least 2 legs up and often more. 6) finally the kicker is that first big bull bar just before 10:00 that breaks above the high of 0400 AND closes right at it’s high. That PA confirms to me price is headed north for at least a MM (calculated from bottom left of his gray box to 0400 high then extrapolated upwards from 04O0 high. So at the close of that big bull bar if I am not long I will be and I will average down on any small pushback by the bears. PA, at least for me has confirmed we have an 80% chance of a MM up and I am betting with those odds.