Discussion in 'Trading' started by ByLoSellHi, Sep 25, 2006.
I just had to.
I'm the first "yes" vote so I'll be keenly watching the sentiment of this poll.
I started a "Market's Going To Crash" thread back in July and the saving grace for me was the number of poster's who agreed. After I saw the bearish bias I covered quickly on the gap higher opening and actually flipped long.
It's not scientific, but I'm actually pretty curious about the level of bullishness/bearishness amongst traders.
WTF. What are you gonna do with these numbers? Calculate the EV?
I'm on the seller's bandwagon. Bought cheap puts today.......
Not in the election year, no.
I was very surprised 1340.00 was not busted once hard in the last two weeks for the ES (darn MP level is holding like cement so far....and again today).
I am noticing a lot of selling into some of these last few rallies, so some biggies are getting defensive.....that is important to me to watch. End of quarter clean-up the rest of this week will probably bring on some strange market action, so play heads up near the highs here.
One factor that I keep thinking about is how bad many of the mutual funds performances are doing this year (equities funds). So we are near the highs of the year, and many large funds all they have been able to do is slightly better than breakeven for the year so far. So if selling starts again in the market for the days ahead, then at some point these heavily LONG equities funds with flat performance for the year may start a rush to the exits (the ES 1320 level being sold through is something I am watching for....this may be the "starting" line for some liquidation days).
Forgot to mention, the 23% oil sell-off may have delayed what could have been more selling near the end of August or first part of September ( I do not think it will be "crash" selling yet.....that may happen in 2007). If we can't even get above 1340.00 tomorrow for the ES, I will be looking for another "swing SHORT" trade set-up......might as well.....LOL.
Let me help you guys out. As of today, the DIA is hard to borrow as is the QQQQ's. There is only 4.3 million shares left to borrow of the SPY. Let me translate this for everyone. The entire world is short. I'll let you guys fill in the blank what it means when the entire crowd is on the same side of the trade. Good luck shorts. What is obvious, is obviously wrong.
I'm just curious about the sentiment on this forum.
I also wonder if it's true that crashes only happen given ebulient backdrops.
Was the '87 crash preceded by exuberance?
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