then why did you post this: adamm2 Registered: Dec 2009 Posts: 279 11-18-11 03:11 PM You are long spy options... I don't think the market's going to go up . that isn't a prediction??!!
As of now, I only trade the ES and the most interesting thing about the past few weeks for me has been that I'm basically not getting any trade signals at all. Which is fine by me, since there's been hardly any follow-through on the ES anyway. So, the design of my system is proving itself by keeping me out of a fairly crappy market for my type of trading. Maybe think about the type of market you don't want to trade in and build in features to your strategy that will keep you out of that type of market.
Of course it's possible to be directionally-correct 60% of the time. If you really want to kick ass, though, you need to have your winners be 2X the size of your losers, too. 60% correct with winners much smaller than losers is just a fancy way of losing money while being "right".
High volatility is good if your using the right strategy to grab it. In that effort CL has always had great intra-day volatility .
Not getting hammered worse today than in other difficult periods. I've been smacked around in August/September 1998. December 1999. Sept 2002. April 2004. August 2006. July 2007. October 2008. August 2010. Probably forgot a few. There's always violent times for any trader. Question is if you're prepared to handle the rough waters. There's calm sea after many storms, if you can make it there.
Yes, I have back tested some systems on Amibroker and my tests have indicated a 30% win rate is all that is required to make a healthy profit.
Oil goes from $75 to $103 , making new highs. So it's not supposed to pull back and consolidate some up moves? I am sorry but to use word "Fu---ing" in every other sentence to describe market action says it all. Like Maverick74 says, markets are not supposed to go straight up or straight down. There are plenty of dividend paying stocks with steady earnings/cash flow which will give 10-12% a year total return if one wants to avoid whipsaw moves in OIH, E-mini, etc..