I know people That been saying we gonna have a crash since 2009, and the funny thing is they repeat the same thing every year Lolz
Paradise, tho others might not view (my) journey in the same light, it's my journey. As I figure out where I want it to end up (in the short term) I find reasons to adapt and adapt.
Ken timing is everything in shorting and more so in 3x leveraged short etf's. And example is sqqq. On Feb 26 the naz closed about the same price as it did friday . Sqqq on Feb 26th closed at $20 or so . On Friday Sqqq closed at $10.80. So if you held sqqq for the last 2 1/2 months your down an amazing 50% and the naz is the same price . You need a 100% gain to just break even . So with these as you well know you can be right on direction at some pt and wrong on timing and you still can lose big if you hold them So if you load the 3x's as you say you want to and we don't crash till oct and go sideways you'll need a crash to break even. Historically these have been terrible bottom fishing instruments due to the massive erosion in them . These are nothing but options in reality and timing is everything . I'm a 60% guy . You can have the first 20% and last 20% of the gain and give me the middle 60% . How many times have you had a can't lose trade only it being a disaster? If your were shorting straight up indexes with no erosion i'd say if you have the money and time go for it but YOUR NOT .
You're exactly right-- I learned that the hard way with VXX years ago, these are all day trading or 2-3 day round trip instruments due to contango/decay. Thanks for the nudge re not to overtrade during consolidation and to take profits early, it helped me last week. Having said that, the biggest point gain I got in my life was buying TVIX near 137 last fall and selling at 940 on it's big breakout. Goal is to combine scaling with tight partial stops. I remember successfully daytrading VXX on the day of the flash crash years ago, it's buy the dip sell the rip.... still a thrill
Yes, the FED has that much power. Your analysis is entirely correct. But when central banks monetize losses and debauch the currency to offset a collapse, stocks go up. Zimbabwe, Argentina, Venezuela, Wiemar. All extreme examples. In each case, productive capacity was bombed out/shutdown/expropriated/non-existent. But stocks still went up. Hard assets go up during periods of money printing. Holding restaurants/airlines/recreation/resorts/casinos are a bad idea. But tech/clothing/food/cars/miners/PM's/bitcoin still good. USA is opening back up. Trump is in power. Yellen was removed. Powell is a dove. Remember the bottom of 2009? When the FED stepped in. The Great Depression was admittedly created and exacerbated by the FED (withheld gold stockpiles from commercial banks, so national money supply was throttled). We'll never have a deflationary event like that again, unless they signal it. There is zero evidence to suggest the Powers That Be are signaling a deflationary event. Quite the opposite. My 2 cents. Look at oil.
What you described is too familiar. More often than I care to admit, I was right on the underlying direction, magnitude and even timing yet my calls/puts lost money. May I ask why SQQQ doesn't track 3X inverse QQQ? There are no implied volatility vs HV or time decay in SQQQ?