>>>And? You're right, but when the drop comes it will be swift and timing it will basically be luck. I wouldn't short that chart. It looks to me like its gonna be a slow grind up Max. Being right but being early is the same as being wrong in this game.
Thanks Lonestar, Vanz, SteveM, Vincent, Km, WRB, All you guys are right, I just feel like i cant let this trade go...... I feel like I'm going to puke when i miss it, but you guys had the right advice I don't know what to do, because i keep seeing this monster short, and i feel like if i don't take it I'm going to feel like a complete idiot..... I built money trading this way, more based on short term setups, but i have never dealt with being on the wrong side of the market as was whole. This market is grinding me to death, every day i don't understand why its up on bad news, and i feel like its about to crack....
Max, good luck...... I totally agree with your market sentiment and think we're on the cusp of the best "short the fck outta the market" setups we'll ever see. But I've lost a few k lately trying to bottomfish inverses like SQQQ TZA etc .... I made solid profits trading them up Feb March but gave a lot back lately. Timing is everything .... I called mkt top here January 24th, actual top ended up being a few weeks later. I thought this bear market bounce was going to be over a month ago, but that was early too. I'm still bearish and will be aggressively buying inverses if and when they bounce, I'm confident this market will drop hard sometime in the near future. I'm gradually going to scale into inverses SDOW SPXS TZA SRTY FAZ TVIX when they bounce. It's frustrating to see the epic disconnect between market rally and economy in shambles, makes no sense. Best wishes.... I've got fomo short opp of a career
Max, Last thing I will say about this: Why are you assuming the market will selloff? The market has been rising for 6 weeks now. The trend is upward. Put your fundamental analysis to the side - you might be right, but the hundreds of thousands of traders and trading programs buying everything could be right as well, like they have been the last few weeks. We as traders protect capital first and make money second. The market will remain irrational to you a lot longer than you can remain solvent - I'm sure you've heard this before. I would read the Ed Seykota interview on Market Wizards if you haven't. Ed would observe the trend is upward and he would continue adding to his longs and when the trend changes he wold reverse his positions. Let go of your survivorship bias.
Don't abandon what works for you for 15 years and bet it all on an iffy trade. Real GDP decreased 4.8% in Q1, not 30% even though unemployment was up to 14.7%.
I felt like that once. I watched the news daily, subprime, then main street banks were having lots of trouble. Every morning I'd wake up and buy ^RUT puts, because in my opinion, it would fall hardest. And it just kept going up. Finally it all crashed, but at what point, and why? The Monday after bin Laden was finally eliminated was a new all time high for the Russell, at the open, and it sold down steadily. So, why is that important? I could see the news, and the market acted exactly opposite from what it should, that's why. Furthermore, once the shenanigans could no longer be ignored, the government allowed a couple of banks to fail, just to show they could, then called the rest of them into a Sunday afternoon meeting and gave them oildrums full of money. Nobody ever took any personal responsibility for nearly destroying the economy. All the big boys got a truckload of free money. And, the market, as we knew it was broken. Still is.