I got problems

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by cashmoney69, Feb 7, 2007.

  1. When I look at these charts, the only thing that comes to my mind is "Wow, this stock has gone up a lot!.. it's probably a good short".

    I would go long, but I cant get over the mental thought of "This is a top right here", and any red candle I see just amplifies my bias belief that the stock is ready to reverse.

    If you could look at ONLY the daily charts for the stocks I'm about to list..what would you be thinking if you wanted to trade these?

    VARI http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VARI&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p23658243677

    VTRU http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VTRU&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p23658243677

    HYSL http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HYSL&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p23658243677

    BDX http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p23658243677

    NATL http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NATL&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p23658243677

    COLM http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=COLM&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p23658243677

    Others include: GNTX, NIHD, KRON, GYI, TSO, FHN, ITW, CMI, CKN, RCL, and, SIRF .

    I want to short all of these, but of course I dont have the money to do so. Which one would you choose?

  2. Buy some puts, sell call spreads or naked calls(if you can handle the margin).
  3. cash - let me start by saying that I used to think that I could stand in front of a train and win too.... What I found out was that you'll be right sometimes, but when that train hits you straight on... watch out.

    Point being that you found quite a few strong up-trending stocks. Yes, at some point they will 'correct' or 'pull-back' where a person could short and make some money. But right now you are taking the path of greatest resistance by going against these strong up-trends.

    I have to ask - why the fascination with trying to pick tops? Why not just go with the flow and make some 'easier' and less stressful money???

    Any chance you have some stocks currently in a down trend to consider shorting? Or any longs you are considering with an up-trending stock?
  4. "I have to ask - why the fascination with trying to pick tops? Why not just go with the flow and make some 'easier' and less stressful money???"

    Isn't that the dream for traders to be able to pick the top/ bottom and ride it up/ down 5+ points or more?. I look at these charts and cant help but think "man, if only I bought at 'x' price, I would have made 'x' dollars". So instead of ignoring the stock, I get jelious and want to make money like all the other people did that were in it. I know I shouldn't think like this, but I do.....hence the name of this thread :(

    "Any chance you have some stocks currently in a down trend to consider shorting? Or any longs you are considering with an up-trending stock? "

    For a short, I like RCL. Right now, I'm STILL holding CAT from 62.06, but only 80 shares, then bought another 20 at 65.10. Problem is, my 'investment' in CAT took most my capital, so now I only got like 9k to trade with :mad:.

  5. I understand the comments Cash, but after many, many thousands of dollars of real-time trading myself, I finally said there's got to be an easier way than guessing when this thing is done moving. Momentum can be very, very strong in the markets, no matter how right you think you are.

    I would suggest you consider looking at going with the trend of the overall market and then finding stocks that go with that trend. I realize there are always stocks out there doing the opposite of the current trend, but it may be easier to find ones doing what the overall market is doing b/c if the overall market is up, some underlying stocks are sure taking it higher.

    Again, it just comes down to either choosing the path of LEAST resistance or the path of STRONG resistance. For me, I choose the easier path.

    Keep in mind that I do not trade stocks anymore, so I am just providing a 3 second analysis on RCL using free Yahoo charts:
    > 5 day chart in strong down-trend
    > 3 month and 6 month chart showing some weakness that appeared to start with a very nice shooting star

    I have no idea what timeframe you use or what kind of a trade this is, so please bare that in mind.

    One other suggestion - if you are still wanting to trade against the trend and look for reversals, I would STRONGLY recommend you learn some basic candle patterns.
  6. CM69, you get many good advice on many thread you started and you still dont learn lessons. Why you so stubborn? You never seem learn from your mistakes and you start new thread all the time whining about you "problems". Why not start to learn from mistakes and stop "dreaming" about catching magical trade and learn how market really works. You keep making same stupid mistake over and over, it no coincidence. Stock/market keep setting trap for you and you keep falling for them, stupid boy. Learn your lesson, otherwise you will spend 5-10 year bleeding your account with nothing to show. It time for you to make your stand and stop being foolish with your monies.

  7. what?

  8. You hear me, I am trying motivate you. I read many posts of you and they all wreak of same things, same problems. You not seem to learn from things. You love "top picking" and "bottom picking" but you dont understand things that signal top or bottom. You guess, and most not good guesses either. You dont seem understand how use TA the right way. You flounder around and post many thread all with same underlying issue.
    If you want succeed you need stop doing the same thing over and over that cause you problem. Otherwise you will not make significant headway, it just facts of the business.


  9. dinoman


    How can I make this simple?

    Would you jump in front of a train?

    Would you try to catch a falling knife?

    Pretty simple I think.
  10. cash 69, perhaps you should first decide if you want to be a day trader or a swinger or multi day trader

    decide that first
    #10     Feb 7, 2007