I got it!.....I lost it...The search for consistency.

2 cents....
You are not searching for consistency, nor are you searching for a system that suits you and how you see how the market works.
Instead you are looking for easy answers and solutions from others with random searching - and you appear to now want that easy answer to be found in the form of programming.

If you go down this path.....listen and understand the good advice you were given by someone who was in your shoes. Dom993

"I believe it is a waste of your time to look at this chart, or that chart, or a dozen of them, even a hundred of them, and just try to see a recurring pattern. You need to create a model of price-action, process 5 to 10 years of market data into that model, then research *in the model* patterns with a statistically profitable outcome."

You dont necessarily need to change if you can apply the way you see the world naturally to your advantage......not how someone else sees the world.
So ask yourself - how do you see the market working and how do you think you can profit from that?
If your answer remains that the best thing to do is copy others then give up trading.

 

NinjaTrader is my platform of choice, and I do run multiple systems on it, 24/7, of which CLAlwaysIn which as its name suggests, is always in the market. IMO it is a great platform, although not perfect (no software ever is).

NinjaScripts are just C# programs, with all the flexibility that entails, and the possibility to make use of Microsoft .NET classes, which will save you lots of time & efforts when you get to do complex things.

C# is an excellent programming language, its main (and most only) drawback is to be Microsoft-centric, but when you choose a trading platform which is already Microsoft-centric, this is your best programming language for sure.

The book I always recommend to get started with programming & C# is the C# Yellow Book from Rob Miles: http://www.robmiles.com/c-yellow-book/ .

For NinjaScript specific support, the NinjaTrader support forum is second to none.

For general C# programming support, you can either find a student with at least 2 years of computer science & C# under his belt, or use a professional C# support hotline (ha! I have that in my services offering, if you are interested).

 

Yes, I believed they were consistently profitable. I believe that in the search for becoming consistently profitable, I need to do research and study the methods of others, adapt them and make them your own. Spydertrader was trading stocks when I was trading stocks, had a method that I first copied and then adapted to an automated trading system. It did not work long term. Anekdoten was there when I wanted to lose the Indicators and just trade price. I thought perhaps copying his setups would teach me a method that worked for me. Trading the trend and following setups seemed a more reliable method than using indicators. The skills transfer obviously did not work, and I put that down to my incorrect identification of said setups or not trading every setup I see because of fear. FuturesTrader71 introduced me to Volume Profile, and perhaps I thought of it as the new shiny toy that would work for me. Not enough effort was spent on my part, so I attribute my failure in VP to not investing enough effort into the strategy.

Because I was brought up to believe that being wrong is bad. I think that I trade the markets to be right more than to make money. Being wrong is something I do not deal well with in any part of my life, and I guess I am like a lot of people in this way. That’s one of the troubles with the world. People caring too deeply about their own misconceptions because it would hurt too much to admit they are wrong. I wrote in my notes today that I want to trade the market to be right and to make money, but feel these are mutually exclusive most of the time. So what do I do to resolve this? Perhaps identify with being right about other aspects of trading - being right by ‘doing the work’, and creating a plan, rather than defining ‘right’ as a winning trade, and ‘wrong’ as a losing trade.

Because they are not part of any written plan.

Wow. That’s a toughy. Why does anyone stray from what’s good for them? Smoking, Overeating, laziness. I am reasonably strict in other parts of my life. I run marathons, so that takes a lot of structure and discipline, I think. If I ran every day and showed no improvement, I’d try other methods, perhaps in a sporadic, undisciplined way, before giving it away. If I had an edge, I don’t believe I’d be undisciplined at all. So my statement about being undisciplined is just a definition for trying a variety of untested methods. And I agree with NoDoji, that by doing so makes me a gambler, not a trader. I liked that smack in the head. To de disciplined is to stick to the plan. To stick with a plan, one needs to see progress.

I really thought about this question. Many times I thought I did have a consistently-profitable plan. Most times I only trade based on the rules I have written down. But when I thought about this question, I really think it comes down to having a belief that a consistently profitable plan is outside the realm of most retail traders. I have looked to find an edge (probably in all the wrong places) for years, and not found anything that panned out in Out of Sample testing. Another belief I need to eradicate.

I am going to quantify what I already have in terms of a trade setup. How often its profitable, what the MAE/MFE of each trade etc. Then I am going to look at the context of each setup and see if I can identify the conditions under which the setup behaves.

As stated above, my beliefs have perhaps prevented me from investing the amount of effort required to identify an edge. If I allow myself to fully research a particular setup, then perhaps I can allow myself to question my belief.

Good point. I know that caring about a trade costs a lot in terms of mental effort. When I don’t care, I can trade for longer periods. Not caring comes back to no longer caring about being right or wrong, since I was wrong so many times, what’s another one?

Agreed.

 

Easy answers? Really? Sometimes the 'easy' way actually turns out to be the hard road. It doesn't feel easy, that's for sure. Am I searching? Yes. And to be honest, your first paragraph does sound like my behaviour.

My plan is to allow myself to suspend the belief that I can't find an edge, and follow the advice of NoDoji and Dom993.

You pose some interesting words about the perspective of trading. Well worth some more thoughts. Thank you.

 

Here is the unmodified net figures for my setup for the last sixty days. Profit is in NQ points, except where indicated. Figures include commissions:

Trades: 145
Net profit: 48.5
Win %: 64%
Profit Factor: 1.18
Expectancy (ticks): 1.43
Average win: 3.64
Average Loss: -5.48

Its no brainer that a system like this is hard to trade. Good to know the numbers. Time to work on improving the setup. Things to try:

Hold the winners longer (can afford this since I have a good win rate);
Reject trades that have already a low win/loss ratio.

I'll post the results and then consider more options...

 

...and the cumulative profit chart...

 

Difficult to say without knowing your trading plan. What is it?

 

Here's an exercise to get started on finding an edge. I call this one Forensics because it involves looking at the scene of the crime (strong directional price move) and determining what happened and why.

Using today's NQ action as displayed on a 5-min and 1-min chart as an example:

1) A strong directional move begins just prior to the open. A common technical price action setup (context + pattern) led to this move. Can you find it? (Hint: it's especially clear on the 1-min chart, which allows for a low risk entry)

2) Once an opening high was put in, the entire move reversed and price broke the overnight low. A common technical price action setup led to this strong reversal. Can you find it? (Hint: it's again clear on the 1-min chart, which allows for a low risk entry)

Extra credit: What is one explanation for buyers finding value at the 3657 zone?

This common setup can become the basis of a profitable trading plan. Once you identify the setup, evaluate every appearance of it over a period of two weeks and log the price movements surrounding it.

 

Thanks man. Much appreciated. I'll start there and phone you if I need help

 

I'll have to spend more time on this, but I will give you my first thoughts:

1. The premarket move could be a combination of an abc move where the subsequent Low is a higher low, followed by the DTL break. The context, I am not aware of, other than a reaction to the sell-off yesterday afternoon.

2. All I can see here is a DTOP from the overnight session, and 2 adjacent bars on the 1 minute chart also form a DTOP. Resistance here, although a 2 bar DTOP on a 1 minute chart is not something I would give great significance, but I could be wrong. Not entirely sure where the best entry point would be, since the UTL break is one third to halfway down the downward move. Perhaps there is a better entry.

The extra credit is the support found on the 18/3 and 19/3.

I am probably way off, but I appreciate the help.