How is having a 33% return having the holy grail? Does not make sense unless over the course of several years in up and down and sideways markets you have been able to obtain this return. If after this your statement holds true then YES you do have the holy grail being that the return on the S&P 500 over the last 50yrs has been around 11%. That would mean that you have beaten the S&P 500 3x. WOW! easier said then done imho.
Of my last 50 trades, 45 have been winners. That's 90%. I don't know where you get 33% from: Closed positions: STOCK DATE IN DATE OUT PAID SOLD GAIN ANN GAIN DHOM 1/8/2002 1/30/2002 15.30 17.75 16% 266% GNWR 1/3/2002 4/9/2002 21.38 24.80 16% 61% SAH 1/31/2002 4/9/2002 28.05 32.49 16% 85% ANH 1/10/2002 4/22/2002 9.73 11.30 16% 58% GAN 4/9/2002 5/1/2002 56.20 65.09 16% 262% RYL 4/10/2002 5/3/2002 100.35 116.17 16% 250% JOSB 5/8/2002 5/17/2002 20.58 24.11 17% 696% MHK 2/20/2002 5/20/2002 60.00 69.66 16% 66% TENT 5/14/2002 5/21/2002 13.67 15.88 16% 843% HAMP 6/18/2002 7/9/2002 21.89 25.35 16% 275% RATE 1/9/2003 1/13/2003 4.30 5.14 20% 1783% LCI 1/24/2003 2/6/2003 20.00 23.40 17% 477% ODFL 1/3/2003 4/3/2003 29.05 33.77 16% 66% AVD 8/19/2002 4/14/2003 15.07 17.58 17% 26% QSII 2/25/2003 5/6/2003 26.14 32.10 23% 119% JFBC 1/2/2003 5/21/2003 50.90 59.46 17% 44% LEND 5/19/2003 5/27/2003 13.75 16.47 20% 903% PORT 2/7/2003 6/2/2003 46.85 53.67 15% 46% NFI 5/27/2003 6/5/2003 51.45 59.45 16% 631% DRL 4/7/2003 6/6/2003 37.70 44.02 17% 102% HITK 5/7/2003 6/16/2003 37.16 45.60 23% 207% OHB 5/21/2002 6/17/2003 9.92 12.01 21% 20% FBC 6/6/2003 6/26/2003 20.85 24.24 16% 297% MBT 5/2/2003 6/26/2003 48.50 57.04 18% 117% VNBC 4/12/2003 6/30/2003 18.89 21.96 16% 75% SSYS 6/19/2003 7/7/2003 33.35 38.90 17% 337% ACMR 4/22/2002 7/14/2003 22.01 25.46 16% 13% UTSI 7/3/2003 7/16/2003 36.28 41.95 16% 439% FCFS 7/8/2003 7/21/2003 16.30 18.84 16% 438% FRED 5/2/2002 8/1/2003 26.23 30.29 15% 12% SFCC 7/30/2003 9/2/2003 26.01 31.00 19% 206% ESI 8/7/2003 9/12/2003 39.59 46.38 17% 174% MDC 7/10/2002 10/1/2003 46.59 54.25 16% 13% COH 6/9/2003 10/14/2003 25.75 30.21 17% 50% ARO 10/3/2003 10/14/2003 28.90 33.62 16% 542% NARA 7/25/2003 10/16/2003 18.91 21.94 16% 70% DKS 7/29/2003 10/29/2003 39.99 47.21 18% 72% WRLD 6/3/2003 10/29/2003 14.43 18.63 29% 72% WLS 10/16/2003 10/29/2003 54.10 62.76 16% 449% GRMN 5/23/2003 10/29/2003 45.91 53.00 15% 35% OPen Positions: STOCK DATE IN PAID NOW GAIN TARGET PTSI 4/15/2002 24.84 19.07 -23.2% 28.9 AXL 5/20/2002 34.73 34.45 -0.8% 40.2 CHKE 5/22/2002 21.50 19.25 -10.5% 24.9 WSB 6/30/2003 10.67 9.21 -13.7% 12.4 AMHC 7/14/2003 41.00 43.13 5.2% 47.6 HELE 9/2/2003 24.13 20.61 -14.6% 27.9 PRX 9/18/2003 72.40 73.55 1.6% 83.7 FINL 9/29/2003 27.13 30.16 11.2% 31.4 CBK 10/20/2003 29.38 29.89 1.7% 33.9 JBSS 10/24/2003 28.37 32.30 13.9% 32.9
33% ? why is the trade more likely to go against you ?? 33% likelyhood of success means 67% chance of failure. why are the odds against you and with the person on the other side ?? surfer
That's why starting from today, I would prefer to trade with the Non-Holy Grail (of 67% chance profitable)!
Oddi, If, and that's a big if, you found a way to consistantly perform at 33% batting average with the correct size win, that by definition is "your holy grail". There are as many holy grails as there are successful traders. Most of the market wizards didn't even do 33%. Good luck.
I love reading stuff like this. Making a living becomes so much easier when I know that there are people out there who approach the market in this way. (thanks Jack) Yes, indeed.
Sorry, but that is arithmetically incorrect. A 2-to-1 win/loss ratio will not make money if you are correct only 33% of the time. If this is not obvious, consider a simple example. You lose $1 on each of the first 2 trades and make $2 on the third trade. This is the basic scenario under which you propose to make money. However, you did not even break even after accounting for slippage and commission.