You often hear that you don't need, and wouldn't even want, to forecast anything. What's the psychological reason? Dont we all forecast? What's the correct approach? It's more probable that...
There was a hunter, he walked in the woods, sat down on a stump and fell asleep. A rabbit ran into the stump and keeled over dead. The thump woke the hunter, he saw the dead rabbit and thought "This is a good way to hunt"