I feel like giving up!

Well, I'm bored enough today to have looked at your link.

I'm not trying to be a jerk, but.... You should realize that posting results from a specific short time frame in the past tells most of us that you're running a scam.

I.E. Although your posts were made in late Jan 2011, the acct snapshots were Nov 2009 through Jun 2010. Your profits also carried an obvious (and very leveraged) correlation to USD value. "Coincidentally", USD made a sharp trend reversal the first week in Jun, and you began to experience sharp drawdowns. A very elementary analysis of USD correlation insists that unless you completely performed a 180, you certainly blew up your account in the following months.

Like I said, not trying to be a jerk. Feel free to prove me wrong.

 

Hehe.

No I was not trading a dollar long over that time. Amazing what we as humans notice patterns in, you can also see the retests of the breakout areas in my equity curve if you look closely.. no wonder people talk about technical analysis being a fallacy

Obviously that's the sweet spot of my curve, account settled just below 60k before I cashed out to move to spreadbetting.

As you can see from the statements from Dec I did not blow up, and if you look at all 3 statements in detail you will see that I am trading many different trades across all types of markets (wheat, gold, crude, many FX pairs etc)

I have a breakdown of some of the IB trades from that period, but it excludes FX. It shows I made money in several markets. Its on my laptop i think, Ill try to find it later.

 

You don't really need to go to that extent. Yes, I can see that you venture into certain commodities, but to say that you weren't long USD during that period is a false statement. It isn't a matter of trying to read into your chart patterns. Anyone with photoshop (me), can take a USD chart during that time period and overlay it on your equity curve. The two are so closely correlated as to be undeniable to any statistician. The only difference is that your equity curve shows very high leverage.

So it really comes down to one fact. If your "system" continued long USD, then you would've blown up your acct. I'm actually giving you the benefit of saying that you made adjustments to prevent blow up. But if you did switch strats then you shouldn't be using numbers from the previous and failed strat. Especially when the most recent snapshots suggest less than half the returns of the previous.

 

Trading Wisdom:


1. Intellect has nothing to do with your ability as a trader. Success is not a function of how smart you are or how much you have applied yourself academically. This is hard to accept in a society that puts a premium on intellect.
2. There is no customer or client good will built up each day in your business. Customer relationships, traditionally important in American businesses, have little to do with a trader’s profitability. Each day is a clean slate.
3. Self-Discipline + Knowledge + Experience + Skill = Success. Success = Profits.
4. Those who have chosen this very unique career of “trader” face a mountain of challenges each day based on ever-changing market conditions. Added to the market challenges are emotions, which can be 90% of the game. You can have a great method, strategy and be taught by the best, but if fear, apprehension or hesitation come up the trader won’t take the trade…..this is an emotional block. All successful and experienced traders learn quickly to become the masters of their emotions. To accept and manage their weaknesses and leverage their strengths.
5. What’s the solution to breaking a pattern? It’s critical to notice when the pattern is happening and to never let it take hold. Attacking a loss immediately helps this. Should a trader not notice the first loss, and the second occurs, than they should really be aware and analyze it. If the second one is not examined and slips by, and the third one occurs, now the risk of the pattern being locked in is very high. I call it the three strikes your out rule. If you have 3 trades exactly alike and they are losers you have to make it a MUST to examine them and change the approach. If you don’t the probability of repeating it and losing again is VERY, VERY high. A trader must do whatever it takes to stop.
6. Finally the biggest most dangerous of the three problems is EMOTION. ANY emotion at all while trading, I call “Trader’s Fog”. When a trader experiences emotion at anytime during the trade they can not think clearly, because the emotion is stronger. So they react in the wrong way. Emotions will cloud judgment and prevent a trader from being creative because the mind can not allow normal thought to occur. Emotions over-ride logical thought.
7. Emotions don’t allow for adjustments, “distinctions” or ways to modify the trade and blocks can get implanted if emotions get out of control. Emotions are a trader’s worst enemy. Here is how you know you have an emotional block. If you want to trade a certain way and react a certain way but can’t and are “pulled” to react differently even though you intellectually KNOW you want to do, you have a block.
8. Keeping one’s mind on track focused and directed is the ultimate mind-set for successful traders. While this sounds like an easy thing to do it can be the biggest challenge a trader will have to overcome.
9. Just as you should put winning out of your mind, so should you put losing out of your mind – quickly. A bad trade doesn’t mean you’ve blown your day. Get rid of the problem quickly and start making the money back. It’s like cheating on a diet. You can’t undo the damage that’s been done. However, it doesn’t mean you’ve blown your whole diet. Get back on track and you’ll do fine.
10. For that matter, the better you are able to eliminate emotions from your day, the better off you will be. A certain amount of detachment adds a healthy dose of objectivity.
11. Trading is a great business because the markets close at the end of the day (at least some of them). This gives you a zero point from which to begin the next day – a clean slate. Each day is a new day. Forget about how you did the week before. What counts is how you do today!
12. The third important ingredient for achieving peak performance is attitude. Attitude is how you deal with the inevitable adverse situations that occur in the markets. Attitude is also how you handle the daily grind, the constant 2 steps forward and 2 steps back. Every professional has gone through long flat times. Slumps are inevitable for it’s impossible to stay on top of your game 100% of the time. Once you’ve dug yourself out of a hole, no matter how long it takes, you know that you can do it again. If you’ve done something once, it is a repeatable act. That knowledge is a powerful weapon and can make you a much stronger trader.
13. The last key to achieving mental mastery over the game is believing that you can actually do it. Everyone is capable of being a successful trader if they truly believe they can be. You must believe in the power of belief. If you’re a recluse skeptic or self-doubter, begin by pretending to believe you can make it. Keep telling yourself that you’ll make it even if it takes you five years. If a person’s will is strong enough, they will always find a way.
14. If you admit to yourself that you truly don’t have the will to win at this game, don’t try to trade. It is too easy to lose too much money. Many people think that they’ll enjoy trading when they really don’t. It’s boring at times, lonely during the day, mentally trying, with little structure or security. The markets are not a logical or fair playing ground. But there are numerous inefficiencies and patterns ready to be exploited, and there always will be.

1. Take your responsibilities seriously and be accountable for your actions. Don’t cut corners and don’t take the easy way out. Always do things the right way even if the right way is the hard way.**
Be In Harmony with the Market
We make money trading when we are in harmony with the market. We are long when the market is going up, and short (or out of) the market when it is going down. If we bring an opinion with us while trading, we will end up fighting the market. We keep trying to go long as the market is declining, or we keep shorting a market that it is in a bull phase.
Don’t fight the Market
Fighting the market is not good for two reasons. First, we lose money. How much we lose depends on how well we are managing our money and controlling our risk. Second, fighting the market affects our judgment, and causes us to try to confirm that our judgment is correct, or persist in fighting a trend so that we will eventually prove to be correct. We figure that if we persist long enough, no matter how long it takes, we will eventually be right.
The same can be said for being in a canoe in a river. There is a reason for leaving your car downstream, launching your canoe upstream, and paddling downstream. It is much easier and eminently more fun to go with flow and paddle downstream. We could do the opposite and paddle upstream. Eventually we may even get to our destination, but the cost would be substantial. It would take much more time, more physical and emotional stamina, and we would be constantly fighting the current. Reaching the goal would not be worth the cost.
Even if you ultimately make money fighting the market, it is not worth the price you have to pay, both financially and with peace of mind.
Let the market tell you what to do and when
The correct attitude for successful trading is to let the market tell you what to do. If the market says to go long, buy, and if it starts to go down, sell. This sounds easy but it is much more difficult than you think. We always like to believe that we can be in control. We want to be in control of our trading and of the market. If you accept the notion right now that you cannot control the market, that all you can control is your execution of trades, you will take a great step toward being a successful trader.




Losing trades are simply a cost of doing business, nothing more, nothing less.
Every business makes scrap. Manufacturing businesses make scrap parts,
restaurants serve poor dinners, and service companies have to refund for poor
service. Every business produces some percentage of defective products. We
traders have losing trades.

You will never eliminate losing trades, just as manufacturers never eliminate scrap
parts. You just simply try to keep scrap at a minimum, and a reasonable part of
your costs. If your scrap rate gets too high due to inattention, then you may begin
to lose money, in both trading and manufacturing.
Trading is like any other business. Keep monitoring your scrap trades to see if
they are getting excessive. If they are, you may have to alter your trading strategy,
just as we may alter the assembly line, or increase our quality control monitoring.
Viewing losing trades as scrap trades in a viable business is a valuable way to get
over the fear of losing money. Losing trades are a cost of doing business.

 

I replied next to each of your ideas,......with 3 ***'s

***You have control over your "system", you do NOT have control over local and global economic factors that do have a direct impact on your business.

Sorry, just had to chime in here:
My experience, (business), owner operator medium size contracting firm, 15 employees, sold business June 2010 after 20 years in business, 30 years in the trade.
Clients included, Coca-Cola, Neutrogena, Jack in the box, and quite a few other high profile names.
Doubters, email me, I'l direct you to website for further scrutiny.
What I wanted to say, was Trading IS a business, just like any other. No different. Everyone has a different emotional temperment for any type of business.
Not everyone is cut out to do construction for as long as I did.
I was not cut out to sit in an office environment.
Some people do not have the patience that is REQUIRED to venture into ANY profession.
We all need to find our "groove" and passion.
Unless you have sufficient start up capital, or take a loan, you are pissing up a wet rope.
It took me 10 years to build a client base that could carry my operating expenses to a point that it could pay me 6 figures a year.
ANY business will suffer set backs, mine went through 3 recession cycles over the years, and the last one diminished my annual volume by 70%.
Luckily, I was at the end of my career, and sold the business to the top guys in the firm for an amount that pays me a small salary each month.
I have spent the last 3 years learning the "electronic" side of trading, as I was a series 7 broker in my early 20's, (salesman), but that is where I found, and maintained a passion for the markets for over 20 years.
I have only been trading for real for 1 year, learning the last 3 and I am NOT profitable yet, nor do I make any bones about it.
I have an exit plan for the business, (maximum time and drawdown)
Do NOT be lured by the sway of the perception of easy money in ANY business venture.
My experience has taught me that, to work for myself, means I have to work 3 times harder than for anyone else.
it's NOT what we do 9-5 that gets us ahead, it's AFTER that, that will make the difference.
Sorry for the rant, but I would suggest looking to the more experienced traders here for help,......I'm not one of them.
I am still learning everyday.
One has to re-evaluate their business model all the time, whatever business you are in.
I am finally at the place where I know a little bit more than I did yesterday,.....which is to say, "never stop learning".
Find your passion, and stay with it,........money is secondary, fulfillment is everything.
My .02

 

Wow, "nuff" said

 

I love you ???


Everyone shoudl atleast save these jewels.

 

+100 on Rick.

Also, 3 strikes rule is nice... many ways to apply it. Not that a setup cant take 3 losses, but heres a hint, if your setup keeps losing on a instrument, change the setup or change the instrument.

Performance of the same system on every market will not be the same...

 

Trade longer timeframes, in the range of swing trading to position trading. Majority of the smart and successfull people seams to employ this style of trading, people like Paul Tudor, Steve Cohen, Soros, etc. and almost all of the top hedge funds.