I totally agree, I recently gave someone a method I use to trade Euro, he did very well the first week of real time trading, then he decided to add and take away parts of the method, right into the crapper after that. My method had been backtested over 10 years of data, I have the ability to stick to my set of rules. But any time I even consider changing anything, that means I have to backtest that change going back huge amounts of data. I see over and over again, too many times traders scan a few weeks of data, saying they don't have the data to go back or they too knowledgeable and know it will work. If people just took part of what they lose in a year would pay for the data, learn how to code or grab a professor at a local college and ask to make one of his classes a school project on your coding, you pick up tab on the pizza party. You make your money thru backtesting, then just stick to your plan. If you can't stick to your plans, try hypnotize.
Hello, Just to clear things up, I do make money from the markets, except hitting the big returns like ARMH or POT, with returns of 100% to 35% per year , it almost varies on luck sometimes,Treading water most of the times, while hitting the big gains every 1-2 months. I trade about once a month. I've expanded capital just last year, I just don't talk about it anymore cause nobody seems to give a shit on this board anyway, I don't care to brag either much. Give you a little insight in how i trade or grown over the years..... = Macro timeframes, with tight stops (1-2%) based on macro timeframes, no hedging or pair trading anymore (2 legs sometimes produce random results and a false confidence), Use markets as my gauge to enter, not the stock. Its basicallt the same way I use to trade in my journals, instead of micro timeframes, I use macro timeframes and look at the forest instead of the trees, Tight stops hasn't changed at all, I still use 1-2% stops, a bit higher from my .3% stops, but its a large macro timeframe. This makes pretty good money, Tight stop on macro frames with macro rewards. ================ 1) Pros to business - start out with $300, You can grow it to 7-8 figures as long as the industry is growing, requirement = the business or industry you are in must be in a "growth" industry, not a stagnant industry or a competitive industry, it *must* be growth. 2) Pros to trading- Best business to run anywhere in the world, I live in a low cost of living and low tax country, I pay about 15% tax at max. Living really good. requirement= $200k+ mininum capital + 3-4 years of trading experience. 3) If you need to build capital -> run a business *in a growth industry* If you have a low cost of living and have at least $200k+USD capital -> focus on trading the macro views. ============== What is the key to finding growth industries to do business in? Industries making 52 week highs then judging how extended are they in the cup and handle formation. Less extended the more growth Right now= cell phones, androids, smartphones, semiconductors ================= I don't post much anymore, because I've learned all I needed from this board. every now and then drop by, otherwise, I have pussy to fuck , buffets to eat at... the basic gluttony, sex, and wild living funded from trading profits. *** which is why I didn't care when I was banned from the board from calling that dumb fuck moderator a retard. Whats his name? MAGNUS? ============= If you need some pointers, you can priv msg me, At best I can correct the "wrong" unprofitable theories you have in trading while pointing you to the right direction. I'm at the point where Im actually giving back to the next generation now.
Find one thing that works. Im sure you already know at least one thing that works 35-60% of the times. Augment the risk per play to a point where you are comfortable taking the amount of losses bound to happen over the course of 1000 trades. (run a few monte carlo sims) If your R/R isnt enough to justify your accuracy (35%) make sure if you increase the r/r of your system. If you do this, reverify that your accuracy stays in the 35-60% range. It will be boring, but since you said swing trade, im sure you can make it work. 1:4 r/r and 35% accuracy. 30 of those a year and you're compounding ~40% risking 1% a play. Doesn't sound glorious, but if you are swingtrading and making 50k a year to boot off a job, within several years you may quit your dayjob (if you want to). Also, it is nice to be winning some cash as reinforcement. When you start gaining a little bit of money or do other measures to decrease the amount of negative activity coming from your conscious mind, new ideas will come to you and im sure you will find more ways to make dough. Just some thoughts... Also... consider the fact that there are many ways to trade 1) You can take many trades, make a little with high accuracy 2) You can take many trades, make a lot with low accuracy 3) You can take few trades, make a lot with high accuracy 4) Alternatively, you can do the same thing in 1-3 and lose consistently too if you just don't have a good method. Chances are after 4 years, if you have been watching with an open mind, you have some good ideas...
The odds are less than 50% for a random entry. The trader has to pay commissions, which puts the trader in a losing position for a one-to-one risk-to-reward ratio with a 50% win rate. I suppose the odds improve for a trader over longer time horizons as the profit per winning trade will be greater and commissions will take a smaller bite in percentage terms.
This is from the article above and complete bullsh*t. Gate's programming abilities had nothing to do with Microsoft's launch. He bought DOS for 50,000 USD sold it to IBM. The only talent needed here was guts (and nerve). _______________________________________________ Sneaking Out to Write Code You already know how Microsoft was founded. Bill Gates and Paul Allen dropped out of college to form the company in 1975. Itâs that simple: Drop out of college, start a company, and become a billionaire, right? Wrong. Further study reveals that Gates and Allen had thousands of hours of programming practice prior to founding Microsoft. First, the two co-founders met at Lakeside, an elite private school in the Seattle area. The school raised three thousand dollars to purchase a computer terminal for the schoolâs computer club in 1968. A computer terminal at a university was rare in 1968. Gates had access to a terminal in eighth grade. Gates and Allen quickly became addicted to programming. The Gates family lived near the University of Washington. As a teenager, Gates fed his programming addiction by sneaking out of his parentsâ home after bedtime to use the Universityâs computer. Gates & Allen acquired their10,000 hours through this and other clever teenage schemes. When the time came to launch Microsoft in 1975, the two were ready.
All entries are random, the patterns you see are tricks of the mind, that is why so many of them fail so often, Double Tops, Triple Bottoms, falling wedges, cups and handles, dojis, etc. The only thing a trader trades is belief. Be wrong and cut bait, be right and sit tight. Too easy
The 50000 came from Gates senior....MSFT leased the software to IBM for $50.00 per PC produced...the reason they got the got the software is the fact that the IBM guy ,who attempted to buy it ,was not 'liked' by the seller on his second visit. As I remember the seller did not live to far away from Fisherman's Wharf in SFO... To the OP...there is nothing complicated to trading....my personal 'turnaround' came when I realized and accepted that I was under capitalized....a coupe of years later, with support of my wife, I got over that obstacle and what a difference it has made!!! Keep your trading strategy as SIMPLE as possible and maintain a very strict money management strategy...losses will always be there...accept them...move on. Analyze your daily trading...both profits and losses... Trading is about 97% boredom and 3% terror.. Good luck... NiN
If all entries are random, then where is the edge? Telling someone to cut bait if wrong and sit tight if right may be simple advice, but it is not easy to put into practical effect. It's a bit like telling someone that it's easy to lose weight because you just need to control your diet and exercise.