i don't think the markets are random, i think they're like this...

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Gordon Gekko, Sep 12, 2002.

  1. actually, when i decide to, i can have an account with about $30k...but that ain't happening til i'm happy with something. this sh!t just isn't getting lost. i have had an account for 3 years with money in it, but i'm not adding more money to it til i know what i'm doing...plus i'm switching to IB anyway..
    #21     Sep 12, 2002
  2. J_Commisso,

    As soon as I get my bonus from work. It is play money


    Please see the attached file.
    #22     Sep 12, 2002
  3. Aphex,

    Hindsight is lovely thing... The thing about a range or contraction is that you usually will not recognize it on the "hard right edge"...

    So when do you get the bonus???

    PEACE and good trading,
    #23     Sep 12, 2002
  4. Next two weeks supposedly. And this isn't hindsight.
    #24     Sep 12, 2002
    #25     Sep 12, 2002
  6. Well you sure sure were not trading it with real money and I find it hard to believe that you were "paper trading" in between all the jibber-jabber of your 100 posts today...
    #26     Sep 12, 2002
  7. I took the day off -- is that ok DAD?
    #27     Sep 12, 2002
  8. I think the truth lies somewhere inbetween these observations:

    1. Free market price movement looks very similar to random movement.

    2. Whenever you find a system that works, the market will adapt and anticipate it, and sooner or later the system will stop making money.

    3. The market always proves tha majority wrong. (Could someone elaborate on this point? Maybe there are alternate ways to state it that might provide deeper insight.)

    4. There are consistently profitable traders.

    Maybe we should approach this whole question by means of a computer simulation.

    What would really be interesting to know is whether or not trading success has to do with intelligence or level of abstraction.

    We could also look at what kind of edge different traders have: MMs earn the spread, but is that a true edge? The rainman guy on the terminal in Chicago has the advantage of being a few milliseconds faster than everyone else.

    I am more the rocket-science type of guy in that my trading system would not work without a decent computer and it would be rather difficult to explain.

    What is your edge, each of you?

    While we are at it, does anyone happen to know an argument for fibonacci retracements other than that the number of traders who believe in those numbers is high enough to make them relevant for the resulting price action?
    #28     Sep 12, 2002
  9. Quah


    You took the day off and you didn't even try to find your old statistics class textbook? :D
    #29     Sep 12, 2002
  10. So if you took the day off then it was indeed hindsight no???

    and why are you getting all defensive Aphex...

    I was telling you something that you will have to learn over and over again once you start trading...

    Hindsight is not the HARD RIGHT EDGE...
    #30     Sep 12, 2002