i don't think the markets are random, i think they're like this...

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Gordon Gekko, Sep 12, 2002.

  1. i do not believe the markets are random. i don't know what word i'd use to describe them, but i think i can explain how they move. if someone knows the term for this, please let me know...

    i don't believe one particular indicator or trading technique controls the market. i believe at times a lot of indicators will line up and then it will get pushed in a direction. of course, this can only last for so long, and then other indicators/systems are in control. maybe this time, it is a weaker combination and the effect will not be the same.

    if the market moves on a news related issue, then for a time, the news will be what is influencing the markets. depending on the news, the effect and the duration of the news will differ as well. maybe the news will only be the dominating factor until another set of coincidences are more powerful.

    i know i'm not describing this too good, but my point is that it isn't possible to fully know how the market is going to move. at times it may be more easy to predict than others, but you never know for sure. at all times there will be something that is controlling the movement, but you may not know what it is. IT could be the collective group of 20 indicators that just happen to be agreeing at that point. as the 20 different indicators start to differ, the movement will be weakening. this will repeat over and over. technicals may move the price, news may move the price, fundamentals may move the price.......anything can move the price...and they probably all do.

    i don't know if i'd classify this as random, because there are true reasons why the market is moving. i just believe that the reason why it moves is a constantly changing set of circumstances.

    LOL WHAT A BAD DESCRIPTION!!!! this was a total ramble on my part. i just hope some of you see my general point!
  2. Go the beach and watch waves in the ocean -- chaos theory.

    The market is definately not random.
  3. cclee


    ...Chaos Theory.
  4. Someone on ET said it well, "The market is random a random amount of the time."
  5. That is my new pastime ...
  6. Everything flows...
  7. ok well, there you have it. the answer to the question, "are the markets random?" is NO. i don't even make money and i know this much.
  8. alright..... my next question to ask is....

    if you believe the markets move according to chaos theory, do you approach them any differently than if you believed they were random? i have to say, i am no expert on randomness, chaos....or whatever other movements there are..

  9. Quah


    I guess you would approach it differently only if you previously said "well, the market move randomly, so based on that I'm going to do x,y,z...". I don't know too many people who first needed to decide if the markets moved randomly or according to chaos theory before they started developing a trading method.
  10. Gordon,

    Here's the deal. If I am consistent trading ES futures over a given time-period, I am going to wire you 1k to get you an account started with IB so you can start trading.

    Have you ever been to the beach -- like to surf? You know, you don't have to know chaos theory to catch a good wave.

    *hint hint*
    #10     Sep 12, 2002