I agree it doesn't necessarrily mean prices are going lower, but for people who bought maybe 3 or 4 years ago (at the top) and they decide to sell now, they most likely will have to settle to break even instead of making appreciation. For me, I own home. It is paid off. Starter home. It has full equity, no outstanding home equtiy loans against it. I would sell at what similiar homes in my area are getting (within reason) meaning if my neighbor only bought 3 years ago at extravagent price I could still sell my house for a little over double what I paid when I bought BUT also LESS than crazy inflated prices of neighbors homes who bought 3 years ago and want to sell higher than what they paid so they make a profit . Of course I want to sell for as much as I can get...but given the market if I go high, I will not get a buyer as soon as I like. If I want to upgrade I will have large payment to offer from sale of my house, but I still will not buy at someones over the top price. I will look for a reasonable price.
If I apply the same simple logic to the housing market I use with trading, price and volume there is no way it is a bottom. If it were, you would see increasing transactions and price flattening or slightly increasing. Last week existing home sales had increasing and volume and decreasing prices not a good sign. :eek:
People underestimate the problem. How many would like to sell AAPL at 200 and GOOG at 700. Same applies to RE any small rebound will bring a ton of sellers. A lot of home owners are afraid to list their house on the market because it will bring the shock of reality.
And countless thousands just leave them listed at prices that will never sell. This is really evident here in Cal where new houses with better features often sell for far less than existing homes. The developers have to sell them, so price them appropriately even if they lose money. Many home owners just want to sell their property, but don't HAVE to. Guess which homes don't get bought. Home appreciation in the bubble markets will take years before it hits any of the historical growth rates, even after it stabilizes as the mortgage/income ratio will still be a joke.
i don't know how much is media generated fear and what is real. certainly real estate is local. that said, you watch our local news (SF bay area) and you'd think it was a real estate apocalypse. couldn't be farther from the truth... i live in the hills and i can tell you with 100% certainty that the real estate market in my neighbourhood is as strong as ever. a month ago, a block away a house went up for sale- was ale pending in 10 days and sold for the ask- which was north of 1.4MM. no shit- on my street, a house went up for sale 2 saturdays ago, open house the next day- sunday, sale pending sign on tuesday, sold sign on wednesday. they were asking $1.5875 and sold it for over the ask- multiple offers. that one sunday open house was a fucking circus on our street- they could have sold the house 5x over, and it's really not even a great hosue- 4 bed 2 1/2 ba 3000 sq ft yawner- nothing special about it at all. these prices are ABOVE comps from a year ago. bottom line- the housing market is still red hot at the high end in the bay area.
That's a strange analogy,all markets make highs and lows and hindsight is a wonderful thing.Are you saying that if you didn't sell those shares at those prices you're in trouble and they're also going lower? How many people would love to have bought Bear Stearns at $3 a share but with the $2 deal on the table it would have taken a brave man to step in,it's now comfortably above $10.
Really high end in SoCal doing OK also, but the rest is getting creamed. SF Bay Area was predicted to stay above average compared to the rest of Cal due the relative lack of inventory (especially in SF itself), and the high paying job market.
The housing market is getting better by the day because home prices are coming back to normal. This situation would have never occurred if people were not living beyond their means. Real estate is a market just like any other. It hit a top. Deal with it. Now it is time for the smart investors to buy at the bottom and leave the weak behind. If these people losing their homes were intelligent they would not be losing their homes right now. They would not have bought property at the top of a bubble. Also, a lot of the foreclosures are coming from individuals that tried to buy second homes or rental properties with money they did not have. Let them pay for their mistakes. These people should not be bailed out. There were warning signs dating back to 2003 or earlier that the market was well overbought.
Now? Inventory numbers and the high number of upcoming ARM adjustments say otherwise. Depends on the local market of course. I'm thinking another year at the earliest. Jay