I don't like when the market goes higher.

Discussion in 'Psychology' started by konviction, Apr 16, 2010.

  1. Not really, I just said that so you'd click on the thread, but let me explain :p .

    Ever since the Dow hit 11k, I keep saying to myself, "OK we're near a top, we're near a top..." and because of this gut feeling it has made me more and more reluctant to WANT to go long .

    I know that:

    1. I should trade what I see, not what I think
    2. I should be buying as long as the market is bullish
    3. Fear leads to lost/ missed profits
    4. Don't short strong bull markets.

    but then I say..

    Response to #1 . Yes, but I can't help if all my years of experience (gut feelings) leads me to think a market has topped, especially if TA supports the opinion. Second I would feel pretty stupid if A) I was one of the few suckers who bought a market top, and B) That I should've listened to my gut feelings, but some how got "emotional" in thinking that "well maybe the markets not done moving after all" and then get stuck in a reversal, and feeling like a stupid noob.

    Response to #2. This is general advice, and not worth much more than the 2 cents of whoever spoke these words. Yes I should trade with the trend, but I don't want to chase the trend either.

    Response to #3. I agree, but it also saves you money when you're feelings turn out to be correct, and protecting the $ you have is ultimately more important than making more.

    Response to #4. And this is why my mind is so divided I don't want to go short because we're still in a rather strong bull market, however at the same time, I feel we're near resistance, but yet feel, as long as the markets going up, I should be long.

    A lot of contradicting feelings to say the least. And I say that to say this...

    In the attempt to remain disiplined, and steadfast/ free of amature emotions, am I actually somehow subconsciously doing more harm than good to myself?

  2. Handle123


    For me, opinions cost me money, I trade what I see. I have one chart up on my screen, five minute ES. I never have a clue if Dow is up or down. Only time I am good at GUESSing that a high or low is in for the day is when I have no money on the trade.

    Support/Resistance is good for price to hold, but not a lifetime.

    Trading my gut has cost me so much money through the years, I just trust price and my rules.
  3. If you are questioning whether you should be in a trade or not, then you should be flat. Never place or stay in a trade unless you have, and continue to have, total conviction that it is a sound risk/reward bet.
  4. With all of those voices in your head, I'd suggest a good antipsychotic med :) and follow the advice of reply #1... Trade what you see not what you think.