I don't buy this rally

I think Fed is more worried about bank crises and keep on providing liquidity. Fed is ignoring the value of the dollar for now.

 

I think he was just placing odds, not talking about what the Fed's real job is supposed to be.

I agree that the Fed shouldn't have a short-term horizon. But Greenspan and Greenanke's actions suggest they do sometimes.

 

I think the FED regards the present situation as extremely dangerous and will work with Gov't ad hoc as crises begin to manifest. FED and Bush will think short term until the credit situation stabilizes.

 

Lol too funny. The FED's new job is to make the market happy and fighting inflation comes second.

 

I agree 1000% that greenspan made some bad moves. He did have 9/11 to deal with, but he cut for too long. We're going to have some jarring in the rates, probably down to 2.5%, until we can stabilize and they are start raising.

 

The Bernanke Fed has trained the market to not trust them. No one is 100% sure what the hell the wacky Bernanke Fed will do tomorrow. That's in stark contrast with the Greenspan years where, no matter how much gibberish he talked in Fed testimony, people knew where he was headed and where he stood.

That's why I think there's a good chance a 50bp cut is not priced into the market. There's still a lot of anxiety out there that has been created solely by conflicting and confusing Fed statements and their subsequent actions (or lack thereof).

 

Very few things make me happier than to know guys like you trade the market.

 

LOL, I really don't care...just as long as the market goes up and down is all I care about and scalp moves in both directions.

I'm not a buy higher, sell higher mentality. You want to chase go ahead.

 

"The moves Ben's making now are to ensure we're in a good place 5 years from now."


Reminds me of the moves greenspan made in 2000-2001 when he took rates down to historical lows, the reason why we are in this credit bubble today is because of where rates were in 2001. All they are doing is creating the same type scenario all over again.....taking rates down below 4% is not the way to go about and fix this credit bubble.

 

Yes, mkt moving in both directions is great, unfortunately for you your biases prevent you from ever finding consistent success trading. Give up the prediction habit and maybe you'll start finding consistency. I did that 8 years ago and the difference in my performance (aka P&L) has been night and day.