I don't buy this rally

Discussion in 'Trading' started by pumpanddumper, Jan 29, 2008.

  1. S2007S

    S2007S


    agree, many think the bottom is in after only a few weeks of declines, I disagree, I think the dow and other indexes are ready to see mid january lows and most likely close below its intraday lows set last week, I just dont see the markets regaining all they lost right away.
     
    #21     Jan 29, 2008
  2. MKTrader

    MKTrader

    The only quibble I have is the "no cut" scenario (which is unlikely, IMHO). If that happens, I think we'd see another one of those 300+ point (3% or more) Dow drops. We had a pretty steep drop in December on a 0.25 cut.



     
    #22     Jan 29, 2008
  3. If you want to short, Ok, but wait until the Fed meeting is over.
    If the Fed makes a big cut, then you may not be able to short.

    Don't fight the Fed, it has extremely deep pockets, unlimited in fact.
     
    #23     Jan 29, 2008
  4. I don't like the fact everyone is calling the bottom and blue skies ahead.

    This FED is not the ECB who has balls. Market would dump 2-3% on no cut.

    They should now with the rally we've had do .25 and save ammo when new shoes drop.
     
    #24     Jan 29, 2008
  5. MKTrader

    MKTrader

    "Don't fight the Fed" is meaning less and less these days. Did you actually follow this from January 2001 until 2003? I hope not!

    Even academics like Jeremy Siegel are saying Fed cuts are mostly priced into stocks before the fact. This is especially true with futures on interest rates. Martin Zweig's original insights on the Fed and stocks came from a different era, but even he didn't use the Fed as a stand-alone indicator.

     
    #25     Jan 29, 2008
  6. Incorrect sir. We're getting a 50. It was already determined a month ago, the minutes just get released tomorrow.
     
    #26     Jan 29, 2008
  7. S2007S

    S2007S


    dow went from new highs to new lows on how many rate cuts???


    "dont fight the fed"???????????????????????????????????????????????????
     
    #27     Jan 29, 2008
  8. Durable goods coming in so high suggests 0bp to me, but Bernanke seems to care about the markets and Consumer Confidence is pretty bad. Maybe 25bp. Could be 50bp because of the stall by Dems in the Senate of Bush's $150B .

    Toss a coin.
     
    #28     Jan 29, 2008
  9. S2007S

    S2007S


    .50 bp 5%

    .25 bp 95%

    0 bp cut 0%


    the market wants a rate cut so he should deliver a rate cut.
     
    #29     Jan 29, 2008
  10. It's not the Fed's job to appease the equity market - they have one responsibility: keep the USD strong.

    Before you flame that comment, the Fed doesn't have a 2-month view on things. The moves Ben's making now are to ensure we're in a good place 5 years from now.
     
    #30     Jan 29, 2008