I guess I'll have to disagree While I wasn't suprised that we went up (I'm long a lot of delta's:eek: ) I was a bit suprised by the size of the move. However the VIX has now dropped quite a bit so I'm guessing we won't see really big swings in the next week or two or perhaps even the rest of the summer. I'm not convinced the bull is over until we have 3 down months in a row (look at 2002)...July spx set will be above 1252 (spx June set).....going out on the limb
I'd rather make money than be right. So right now my signals say to stay long and that's what I'll do even though there is the risk of getting whipsawed here. Heck, there's a chance I get run over by a car tomorrow. There's also a chance my wife will want to have sex tonight. Well, I think the odds are better that I get run over by a car. Oh, well. No offense, but often the people that start these types of threads are looking for validation of their opinion and probably aren't the best traders -- or aren't the best traders yet. The best traders just keep their mouths shut and just keep making money. Peace out, player!
So if indeed things go back to business as usual by the next fed meeting (another rate increase with the same message), do you think bull is done for good? My most optimistic gut says this is the last good bull run (it may last all of a week), if it is, we'll have for a few years. enjoy it.
I'm not saying I'll ignore the signals either --- as long as things are clearly trending in either direction, I'll be there. But you're right, I don't mind feeling like I have a handle on the macro view. Its one of my flaws. Its one of my weaknesses.
For the passionate bears that have posted on this thread it would be wise to exercise some caution. I was a bear for the duration of this down move since mid may. I was really looking forward to remaining a bear as long as the market remained risk averse. It was indeed a nice run for easy money. The holy trinity of the financial markets yesterday printed on their tape that conditions have made a U turn. Stocks all over the globe surged, Yields fell sharply, and the Dollar fell sharply. The fact that all three are in harmony confirm that in the short term the path of least resistance is in fact up. How far no one can know for sure but there will surely be money to be made in the short term on the bull side if these conditions remain intact.
Bonds => down Dollar => down Imports => up Exports => down Foreign money subsidizing the economy / war-mongering through buying bonds => leaves the country for better shores How does this put the economy in a better shape? How is the government now going to fund this big hole? Economy according to Robinson Cruscoe is something that is forgotten by many. (credit to Vic Sperandeo) hmmmm....
It was not admission, it was a statement, big difference. And it was meant as a warning never to fight the tape. Trouble is that it is the same as with an earthquake prone area: you better have regular small jolts than no jolts and having the tension building up and being released in one big jolt. The more they fiddle with the markets (like the PPT) the bigger the jolt will be when it is time to adjust. Perhaps the good old US does not realise it themselves but the rest of the world slowly but surely sees the US being toast. What place is there in the world for the US? High tech industry? High tech manufacturing? Hi tech innovation? All gone (or "exported") to other parts of the globe, the world will just carry on as if nothing happened if the US would stop exporting today. They have no essential eva to add. vital analitics
I don't buy it -- I postulate this is a false move in a long term trend don't "POSTULATE" . simply sell. that's how fortunes have been made in the past