I don't buy it -- I postulate this is a false move in a long term trend

Discussion in 'Trading' started by scriabinop23, Jun 29, 2006.

  1. Let me be the first to call it - I think we're going to have a few good days, then reality will set in once again.

    Reality you ask? Oil is approaching $75 again, and this is the why the fed needs to reduce inflation pressure. They'll stick to they're plan, unless oil backs off for some reason (in the next month doubtful? look at yesterday's reserve reports, plus hurricane season, etc.)

    I think the markets are finally to have a straightforward message, but that'll wear off. I can't believe after this rate hike the housing stocks actually jumped back up. All I can attribute it to is blind fund buying. They're (housing stocks) situation is no different now that this report is out - interest rates are still elevating and the market is soft. Now if Bernanke dropped rates a half percent, then I think that would be another story. But its not.

    A few days of buying mania will be followed by reality setting in that nothing changed, except the dollar just weakened nearly 1% in a day - then back to (bear) business as usual. I bought an SLB 62.5 straddle today right before market close -- I honestly don't know where this is moving, but its going somewhere.
  2. OK.

    Good trading to you,
  3. Sorry, I beat you to it.:)

    "The Fed might be in a situation where if it doesn't get more aggressive and doesn't increase its rate by 50 bps, the oil market will force it to do so soon after."
  4. nassau


    have to agree with you, when all sectors rally as today it in my opinion is a bs move.
    we have started our scale in of written calls and buying of puts.

    with moves like today looks like august has already come.
    low volume, big moves
    we keep our longs mostly as day, hour trades.

    great move in mrvl today but see it dropping back to high 30's 40 area in july.

    good luck with your trades.

  5. nassau


    another reason that will justify a pullback is the fact so many stocks have run, split, run split in a very short period of time, puchased back their stock so a true valuation is hard for to establish for long term position trading. good example of this would be rmbs, brcm, mrvl, ati, tie, nvda..
    the split gives a trader a false sense of value and affordability so when a pullback occurs many double down themselves right out of their money.
    young traders forget the new stock price is exactly that..new but the beta of the stock etc still exists.
    to many traders are chasing the money versus trading.

  6. 100% agreed. Loaded up on July Puts today at EOD.
  7. well, at least this move was not caused by short coverin' but by funds buyin' with both hands, since we close to the beginnin' of the new month, and sesonality favor higher prices from here imo..prolly not back to previous high but a decent relief rally.
  8. bvam1


  9. Well, I did trade the announcement long, but....

    I have been selling the rallies and as I have said before, I intend to do that until the market makes me pay up.

    When I say I am selling rallies, I mean that I watch the move, I wait for the consolidation (check some of the charts I have posted) and when I see it break down, I get on it. This has worked pretty well so far.

    I think the game goes to the person who knows how to determine where the breakdown occurs. Also if I am wrong, and I have been wrong plenty in my time, it is important to know where and when to change my orientation and go with the new tide.

  10. So it looks like everyone here feels the same way. Who can call the first negative 100 pt dow day ? I say Monday, after the euphoria wears off.

    Tommorow dow will be up 48.

    :) heheh... lets see.
    #10     Jun 29, 2006