I did backtest my formula

Discussion in 'Trading' started by yinyang, Jul 26, 2021.

  1. tayte

    tayte

    Yeah you tell'em! Lol
     
    #31     Jul 29, 2021
  2. rb7

    rb7

    With all due respect, Yes and No.
    Backtesting is only one of the first steps. There are many more following that (before going live).
    And backtesting results by itself is meaningless if you don't do the next validation steps (as the OP did).
     
    #32     Jul 29, 2021
  3. userque

    userque

    You sound stressed, bro.

    [​IMG]

    Once again, semantics.

    All those 'other validation steps' are included under the term: 'backtesting.' Then there is forwardtesting.

    Backtesting is the prelude to forwardtesting. Backtesting is not meaningless.

    Even if an individual decides not to backtest, that doesn't imply the general statement "backtesting is meaningless." Even if it is meaningless to one or more individuals.

    Are drug, clinical trials meaningless? Of course not. Just because there are more steps, doesn't mean the first steps are meaningless.

    If scientists are happy about their clinical trials, does that mean message board communities get to assume that they are done testing? Of course not.

    Good luck OP!
     
    #33     Jul 29, 2021
    yc47ib and gkishot like this.
  4. rb7

    rb7

    Seems like some ET participants have difficulties reading and/or understanding basic English text.
    I've never wrote "backtesting is meaningless".
    Whatever bro.
    I'll exchange your joint for a cigar.
    No offence.
    Long live to the OP!
     
    #34     Jul 29, 2021
  5. userque

    userque

    To be fair, I'll just drop your quote right here:
    Cigars are good.

    [​IMG]
     
    #35     Jul 29, 2021
  6. yinyang

    yinyang

    Thanks for the comments. I used 4h candle which only available up to Yr 2013. Any advise where I can get S&P futures 4h price data?
     
    #36     Jul 29, 2021
    janbillian likes this.
  7. Yinyang, I have one URL for you, https://firstratedata.com/i/futures/ES . You can you use any online search engine, many resources are available for long term data, but they of course charge you for it. Free data is unfortunately very limited. If your system performed that well with the exact settings in the six years before, you may have a winner, however there's no way you'll realize a 60% cagr p.a. . But 20 - 25% p.a. may be in the cards.
     
    #37     Jul 30, 2021