Its a simple formula. We, the peanut gallery, do not truly know whats going on behind the curtains. Of course, we have access to the 10-Qs and the valuation methods we see on Yahoo. However, this valuation data is to convince the crowd whether to buy or sell. The crowd is already convinced that they should buy and they have been doing so for months. FSLR continues to make higher highs and higher lows and on greater volume. There are no signs of distribution and only accumulation. All dips are buying opportunities, that is, until it stops making higher highs and higher lows. When that will be, I have no idea. It does feel weird buying a stock with such high metrics and after a nice long run. However, history has proven that such a stock will keep moving higher and the next conference call isnt for another 2-3 months. So the crowd will keep bidding it up all the way until then. I wouldnt be surprised to see FSLR trading at over 100 in the months to come. However, with so much baked into the price, any disappointing news will result in a huge gap down. I wouldnt be uncomfortable buying it at the current price. Im certain it will move into the 80s and maybe much higher in the next month. Would you buy a 7 dollar stock if you thought it would go to 9? Thats where we are with FSLR. The possibility of it going from the 70s to the 90s is real and investors are willing to buy it despite inflated valuation metrics.
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Michael, with all due respect, you have not a clue about the inner workings of the energy markets. First off, we don't need to build new refineries, we need to use what we already have. Utilization is under 90% right now when it is historically 95-97% at this time. Us crude stocks are at some of the highest levels ever!! And while we have not built a new refinery in decades, we have greatly expanded capacity at existing refineries. Of our daily demand for crude in the US, less than half of it is for gasoline. If you are bearish the economy as it seems in most of your posts, you will realize that a slowdown in consumption will result in less demand for petroleum that makes up so many items that are not related to energy (plastics, etc...). Fuel use can remain static and a slowdown will decrease demand. If prices run up we will kill more demand. Bottom line is, like stated before, unless there is an act of terrorism that affects supply we will not make your supercycle run in the next 1-2 years. Be patient, it will come but the underlying fundamentals and dynamics are not ready just yet.
I hope you guys took advantage of the CSUN play and the other solars I mentioned in this post. Im generally bullish on the entire solar scene right now except for a select few like SOLF and CSIQ. Generally speaking, the ones that have shown strength the last few days I am bullish on while the dogs should be left in the pound.
well,as of now, Im up about 7 or 8 points on FSLR 2 or so points on LDK no drawdown to speak of.holding and holding strong. blackguard
HOKU nuts today http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=HOKU Hoku Scientific, Inc., a materials science company, focuses on clean energy technologies. The company designs, develops, and manufactures membrane electrode assemblies (MEAs) and membranes for proton exchange membrane. It develops custom monomers and polymers for MEAs. The company also develops polysilicon-based photovoltaic (PV) modules for solar power systems; and polysilicon, a primary raw material used to manufacture PV modules. Hoku Scientific offers its products and services for the residential primary power, commercial back-up, and automotive hydrogen fuel cell markets.
update both LDK and FSLR hitting new highs up about 5 on LDK and 10 on FSLR since recommending them about 10 days ago blackguard