Whitster, i'd be interested in what you believe are the most reliable predictors of volatility, should you care to respond. I have to say i find myself in agreement with the majority of your posts. It looks to me as though the market is consolidating in a fairly wide channel and we will just have to wait and see if it is going to break up or down. I'm not going to make a prediction, nor do i care which direction it goes. It does seem that those who are not strictly intraday should at least pay attention to interest rates on the ten-year. TNX versus SPX is rather interesting right now.
Its true that today's selloff is meaningless in weekly, monthly charts or compared to REAL selloff on the history. But the fact for the near term ( i was thinking we was talking about near term) you have an ugly engulfing bearish candle that may drive the market lower (or not) for a couple of days or weeks (who knows).
there is no doubt imo, that this was a significant market move today, technically. it changed the tone of many underlying charts across sectors as well. im not calling for the end of the world, but technically todays action most certainly bearish.
Looks like a lot of confusion in the markets now....this is where it sits until everyone realizes that the animals are all on the ark and there aren't any more zebras coming for the ride?