I Coverd FB (Facebook) now long FB - why FB will be a $100+ stock within a year

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by 1011011, Jun 16, 2012.

  1. 1011011


    ...because some company needs to be the amazon of the social platform and FB can be "it"

    i was short FB and made a quick 5$ but i was sweating it as the stock went down in fear of a huge spike upwards. i'm now long FB and i'll tell you why...

    the reason FB stock went in the tank is because it was mismanaged in its offering and probable due to technical infrastructure glitches as well. it had nothing to do with fundamentals of FB or about the inherent intangible asset value but rather on emotions, good or bad that drove the value of the stock downwards.

    as far as revenues go, do you know that internet marketers use FB as a means to advertise and sell goods and services for a profit in form of ads? just as internet marketers use google adsense, internet marketers will now use FB even more as applications and services will continue to mature on the FB platform. GM may not have been successful but many people are. i see FB revenues will be an upward sloping curve as FB will find a way to monetize the mobile arena. they are either going to find some programmer that is going to solve the riddle because like everything else in the internet world, the technological innovation is constantly being developed and to assume that mobile advertising won't be solved is highly unlikely.

    these cnbc analysts that suggest that FB has to generate enormous revenues to offset its current stock price are completely wrong. FB is in the early stages of its earning potential and business life cycle. these cnbc analysts are using a wrong metric in estimating the market value of FB. first off, they are over valuating FB and therefore their revenue model is overstated thinking that earning multiples will have to double every year.

    if FB can continue to innovate, monetize, and ultimately, be THE social platform for end users, the stock price will take care of itself. i suggest FB buy twitter and as many social platforms because that way, they could funnel the various social platforms from its homepage and sell the advertise space. i wasn't a big fan of FB initially but the one thing i use it for is to connect with missing school friends and former acquaintances...which is neat! i tried using google+ but more people are on FB than google+ and google+ is trying to index your social connections to its search field, which is kind of scary...so stick with FB.

    now that the easy money on the short has been made, what you are going to see in about a month when FB discloses its earnings is, they are going to beat estimates significantly causing the stock to shoot up around $45. it will probable sell off to around $38 and will bounce in between $38 and $45 until the second earnings report. that's when i see this stock start to gain the momentum towards to $50 - $60.

    i would not count out FB just yet. in fact, i believe in the short term, FB stock price will surprise many to the upside. in the long-term though, if the company can even maximize either on mobile advertising and/or traffic generating in the form of THE social platform used by end users, FB can be long-term investment.
  2. mm19


    oh well, what dreams are made of these days. bunch of 0101001101010
  3. if FB can continue to innovate, monetize......
    That's a big "IF".

    Now that the "this stock is going to the teens" shorts have gotten creamed, it's time for the longs to get creamed now.
    FB, Zynga, Groupon, etc. are all going to feel the effects of weak global economy.
  4. 101, nice job. Fb is no tech bubble company. Congratulations!
  5. hajimow


    The story of FB:

    Start at $42 and then down to $25 and thn up to $30 and then down to $21 and then up to $26 and then down to $17...
    You can guess the rest.
  6. RobertG


    1011011 you could be right. But, you cant compare Google and FB.
    People end up on these 2 sites for 2 different reasons so their inclination to buy would be different. In GOOG you place a search "Buy Car" and then you get ads, and in face book you place "check out my new car!" and then you get ads. Who is more likely to buy and which advertiser will get better ROI on his money? That is why GM pulled.

    I would love to hear from real ad agents what they think. They are more qualified than traders to analyze this.
  7. alert the media.


  8. hajimow


    FB is like a museum. It is good and you may like it, but you don't want to pay for it. Most people open an account to be nosey to check out their friends pics and status,....
  9. A few years back I was a facebook app developer. My main game netted me over 100k/month. The game had over 350k daily users at it's peak. It was like printing money... There are apps with tens of millions of daily active users nowadays.

    Facebook gets a 30% cut of app revenue now. A lot of the big games on there make around 10-30mil a month. Some are rumored to have higher numbers.

    Do the math...

    I wouldn't be short a company that is in position to control most internet social gaming revenue and have a monopoly on the business... Even big companies like EA are coming on board and developing games for their platform nowadays.

    I have a new game half developed but not sure I am going to continue development because I'm busy with other stuff... Lots of money in the business for good developers.

    It's the app platform that will move facebook forward revenue wise... Not ad's...
  10. wow. Congrats!

    interesting info. I can't imagine paying to play games.
    #10     Jun 16, 2012