Three years in, I can identify key prices levels and the beginning of trends. If I miss the initial move, I can identify a good price to get in for the next leg. I can identify key levels from higher timeframes so that, when the market is moving relentlessly in one direction, larger profit targets can be set. My problem now is this: identifying far enough in advance the likely nature of the trading day. I'm trading 10 es contracts now and there were many times today where I was 1-1.5 points in the money, but was looking for the market to move to a key price level further away (I usually take a minimum of two points). I ended up sitting for HOURS on a position that kept on oscillating between green and red, only to end up reversing at breakeven for the same thing to happen again. I usually average up as a position moves in my favor so you can imagine the frustration. Was today lackluster because we have no key economic releases with only TIPP Economic Optimism on tap tomorrow? Was the reason because 1138.75 is a key price level before the 52-week ES high at 1148? Was the reason because I'm an idiot? I'm not a fan of taking partial profits because I figure that, when the markets moving, you want to push the advantage. When it's not moving, you want to take frequent quick profits. But if one misjudges, a frustrating day results. What clues does the market give?
i think it is all a matter of style, preference, and strategy. some people really want to ride their winners and will settle at break even while some people prefer to be more secure and take profits sooner. no ur not an idiot, its just that some days just don't go the way ur strategy was meant to take out. personally i feel its pointless to find a reason for every key price level or whatsoever. someone with wisdom once said that u just have to give up some of the key levels or u would be having lines all over ur screen and ur never gonna know which is which. putting all the lines together would be no different from drawing a random line on the screen and trading off it because statistically speaking it would be no different from having and trying to pick off every level. know what u know well and think of what is reasonable for improvement and the feasibility just my 2c
You can hope that today's lack of range will be made up for during the rest of the week. Otherwise, the VIX is still much too high and option premiums need to be deflated and we're already in the "Summer Doldrums".
I have no problem taking 4-6 ticks at a time. Three of those together is a good trading day on the ES. But what's the point of taking 6 ticks when the market's willing to give six points? And one can't say, "Well, just keep scalping the trend" because there's an opportunity risk involved. Conversely, you can be waiting for points that never come and end in the red from commissions. Gives me a headache.
yup i totally get wut u mean. well come up with a formula ur comfortable with well as in money management lets say for example ur at 4 ticks and ur willing to push it up in accordance to how much it has gone up so what i m saying u will probably not get 1 point even if it goes up by 1 point but if it goes up by 3 u'll not be out TOO early but then again i somehow disagree that using 6 points as u mentioned as a basis. true something can go up 6 points but i think its almost impossible that someone would be able to pin point where it would hit and reverse at a specific price. well i think in the end its about being happy with what u have i've pondered about the same issues ur having day and night and well the conclusion i came up with is: "where exactly to sell?" falls in the same category as "what is life?" fun to think about but impractical to be satisfied with an answer
sounds to me like you need to define the market you are in before you put the trade on. this is obviously one of the hardest things to do but we all know there is no point in trying to take more than the market is willing to give.
I won't go so far as calling you an idiot since we all make mistakes but were you even aware of this??? Now you might wonder why you didn't take your money and ran as the trendline was hit.
I don't use trendlines. All S&R for me personally is horizontal. Ok, I admit that when I was short this morning at 1138.50 with a profit target of 1134.50, and then saw ES find support at 1136.50, I refused to change my mind. I then let a $1000 winner turn into a loser.
You have to accept letting winners go against you when you are trading for points and not ticks. 1-2 big winners will cover all the small scratches for the week. For the way you trade, NQ or CL would be a better fit. I trade like you and traded ES for about 4 years then moved to NQ and the difference was night and day. This is just my 2 cent, and does not apply to everyone on ET!