Have to give it to you... You're very honest at least in comparison to alot of the people you find here. I'm not quite sure what you trade, but you might want to try trading another type of market. You may find that things you do in one type of market may work better in another. For instance if you trade stocks you may be experiencing some of the downfalls associated with it as opposed to you being just bad at. When you venture off into other markets you may find creative points that lead to your success that aren't even available to you in other markets. From the sounds of things more so than anything it may be a good time now to stand aside and pretend like you were brand new to this again. Don't let your mind be molded to ideas that you should do things one way because that's the way you've always done them. Also it may sound as if you might not know a computer langauge... try learning one (Python in particular)...Of course I could be wrong, but if not it may be time for you to go learn one and simply step aside for the moment, save the money you earn from other venues, and comeback refreshed. BUT if one thing is for sure you've told yourself what you want to be at this stuff one day... Why give up when you always can...... Vizion
You seem like you get a high off of posting about giving it all back.. There is an inherent something else that you may want to deal with. THINK: Money is good, money is power and if I give it all away and start another thread about giving it all away on ET then I am a fukin loser or is a matter of time from blowing out that I must quit trading now.
You're not a loser Flashboy... Just get out fast! A loser is someone who never tries. Kind of the like the person that can tell themselves they have a dumb question to ask. When the only dumb question is the one you have to ask if you should ask it or not...
Yep...I've been around here a long time to read all of them too Flashboy...sorry to hear about your situation down in New Orleans... I have some relatives down there and have some hints into what you must be going through. Hope you rebound from such and BSAM is right... Your trading problems seems chronic and now may be time to step away from the markets and regain a new perspective. I just can't imagine trying to put on a trade now after going through something like that in New Orleans if I was already a struggling trader. Too much psychological stuff to deal with. NihabaAshi
I agree, take some time off, I believe we as traders can only trade well, when we are mentally well. Being wipped out from Katrina, I am really sorry, is putting you under too much stress to trade from to start with. The markets will always be here, but you know that.
Flashboy, Don't put on another trade... I mean it. Just stop for second and call a time out. You have a couple of things you need to do before you start up again: 1. Figure out what your objective is. Are you trading to make money? If so, don't. Are you trading to be good at it? Find a reason. Most traders, in my experience, give back a lot during the day because they are too attached to money. They start taking trade after trade "just to get back to where they were". This is an illusion. You have to just take a break when you experience a loss that rattles you. When you sit back down, your focus MUST be to trade like you did earlier when you were consistent. 2. Give yourself a definite amount of time and money to get this done. This is where you must have a plan. I followed the thread with DBPhoenix and I really thought that you could do it. You seemed to have a hard time sticking to the plan you had for the day, so one of your problems is discipline. 3. Pull out the detailed record of your trades and the corresponding charts. Figure out why you give 20 ticks back in the ER2. What prompted you to take the losing trade? Was your stop defined and did you stick with it? If so, why did you bet your whole day on it? You must figure out what is wrong and pinpoint it. You must know if it is discipline, fear, your plan is unrealistic, your goals, etc. 4. Most of all, you suffered some losses from a major hurricane. This is not the best backdrop for a trader. You need to stop and get yourself together and start again. The market is always here and you will have your day if you are committed. Trading is tricky because it doesn't work with brute force. It is a delicate balance of several important eliminates. I don't know if you golf, but I like to use it as an analogy. It is very similar. If you hack at the ball to get more distance than you are accustomed to, then you will likely leave huge holes where the ball was. You must focus on all parts of your swing and make it smooth. Trading is no different. If you decide to just force a trade like you decide to hit the ball hard between the trees, then duck because you might get it in between the eyes. It is better to use a softer swing for a while and play the safer bets back on the fairway. As far as trading plans, I have been doing a lot of studying myself to determine what I want to overcome next in my career. I am slowly moving into more of a swing in addition to scalping and I'm trying manage my own investment funds. I have a strong suspicion that ALL trading plans work as long as they are reasonable. You can take anyone's methodology in detail and pass it along and many won't make money, but a few will kill it and succeed. It is in how you implement it, how you manage your position size, your stop and your state of mind while trading. Take my advice, Flash, you are only going to frustrate yourself more if you continue to trade without taking a break. The drawback here is that the more you get hit, the worse your confidence will be and the more damage (fear) you will have. A break will help you forget some of the things you fear and will give you a fresh start with no pressure to put on trades just to be in it. Good luck and keep us posted. ET is a community where you can definitely get some guidance even though we are competitors. Take care.
Sounds pretty basic but how many times do we trade counter to the daily move of the market ? Go with the trend and get out quickly if it moves against you. Commissions are low enough if you need to get back in. Chalk up a series of small wins. It will do wonders to restore your confidence and get you back on track. Good luck.
FLASH, Actually I read your thread with dphoenix like 3 months ago, and the first thing that popped into my head was: This will never work. Because as I said before, you don't have a system that <b> works</b> How do I know? Because I tested all those techniques you were talking about, all the techniques most people talk about, breakouts, hammers, etc. All of them are statistically FAULTY over a period of time unless it is done at a specific time followed be a specific price pattern followed by a specific point. KEep on trading the way you do, You'll be 80 years old and you still will be unprofitable no matter how much you discipline yourself. Try swimming on cement, see if you can get far, displine your butterfly breaststroke movement, you still won't get far. get tradestation, metatstock, backtest your "system", you'll know why you just wasted 3 years of your life in 2 weeks. This is advice , exact to the point , no sugar coatings , trader to trader, man to man. Keep it real.
Hi, Having a winning system is one thing. Knowing how to control your risk is another. Even if you have a really great system, it is highly possible you got blown-out soon or later if your risk control is weak. Here I am tring to explain in mathematics based on my study on trading strategies quantatively. Assume you have a system you believe it works. You test it extensively with historic data over tens of years and thousands of stocks. You find the average profit per trade and winning rate really great. So, you decide to put it in real play, but not very long, may be a few weeks or even months, your system suddenly fails and you got blown-out. What is wrong? It may not be your system. It is most probably your risk control is not properly controlled and it fails to handle market extrem conditions. Believe or not, I have studied many many strategies. The best super great strategy I tested tells me 3.0% chance for a big win and meanwhile 0.5% chance to experience a big loss (in the same magnitute as a big win). Here it is not important to know the exact numbers for winnings. But the more interesting thing is the risk of a big loss. I believe most people will agree 0.5% chance statistically to be hit by a big loss is very low. It seems like you made 200 trades but only hit by one terrible trade. If you are not ready to handle this type of big loss, it is easy to be blown-out or at least your profit in weeks/months got wiped out. Assume the probability of a big loss is 0.5% as said. The thing is even worse actually when computing the probability of hitting by such a big loss in a certain period of trading days. If you make consistently a number of trades. The probability to be hit by at least one such terrible trades is 63.30%, ( 100.00 - 100 * 0.995 ** 200), when you make 200 trades. If you do 5 trades per day, that is, 40 trading days or 2 months, you will see a huge loss. This number is 99.81% to be hit by at least one such bad trade in a year assuming the above conditions. If you are very active and do average 10 trades per day, the probability of seeing big losses in a year is 99.9996%. In conclusion, to make money consistently from stock market, it is not how you can win, but it is more how you can handle loss. Note: "Stop loss" strategies cannot solve the problem.
My advice is to quit trading real money and become consistently profitable on a simulator. If it doesn't work well on a Sim, it won't work at all with the fear of losing real money. If your losses are bigger than your wins, change your exit strategy and also study your Risk-to-Reward ratio before taking the trade. If a trade becomes profitable, never let it run back into negative #'s. Focus on preventing losses. Does your system make money on trend days or balanced days? Why? Does it work in a certain part of the day and fail others? If it's a discipline problem work it out on a sim until your actions tend to be automatic. and there's always the old standard we need reminded of from time to time: "Bail. It isn't coming back" Just a few basics.