first understand why traders buy and why they sell, then; 1.) develop your own theory 2.) exhaustively test 3.) re-design 4.) exhaustively test 5.) keep repeating the above until you 'know' you have got it 6.) papertrade for at least 30 trades 7.) start trading live using lowest risk% possible 8.) slowly build up % risked to optimal level 9.) find new ways to become more efficient 10.) monitor edge. i use this scientific method for my ideas. but remember when testing, constantly re-evaluate your emotional attachment, eg. you could find something good(you think), you start paper trading and the first 5 trades are GREAT! you think wow! ive got it! you think it makes sense! it works etc....then your scientific testing goes out the window whilst you dance around the room singing hallelujah. even the best scientists have a emotional tendency to confirm there initial hypothesis. don't get carried away when testing, it is just important to have a cool head when testing as when trading. hope this helps.
It's all very interesting, thanks to everyone. When Nitro says "sophisticated people", he must mean people who are at the same time experienced programmers and experienced traders. And I suppose these people are among the 5-10% known to make money consistently. However I don't have to worry about beating the top players - to make money I just have to be better than the other 90%. They are the ones who make the market move, and who have to be outsmarted. If the market was moved just by the sophisticated people, it wouldn't even move maybe. "Everyone knows that something can't be done, and then comes one man, who doesn't know that it can't be done, and he's the one who does it." - Albert Einstein
ditto w/ nitro. Everyone else who disagrees or doesn't understand where he's coming from is obviously a sucker. There's really no point in debating.
Sucker. Gems lies in looking into systems that used work that didn't. Maybe your perception of "1. Find what works" is not well thought as you wish to be. "There's nothing new in the market"... someone other than Buddha
I've actually done some research on "time of the day" condition. It's originally a well known S&P floor trader rule which I was given the task to research. (Time is close, I was told 10:00, 1:45, and 3:00... anyways...) By the way I take it, you use other "convictions" which you cannot quantify but as a "pattern" of your perception relative to the market. It's nice to see an old adage come back to me... Be proud, you realized something an experienced floor trader took years to perceive.
Interesting viewpoint but I (respectfully) disagree with you. Somehow, my experience has been the exact opposite. More along the lines: "There is nothing new under the sun and, least of all in speculation" (Livermore) & "The more things change, the more they stay the same". Happy Trading.
You could have just said "Yes, you are completely clueless." Laudatory sarcasm is cruel for those of us raised without love *sniff*