I can see fed cutting rates next week

Discussion in 'Economics' started by silk, Aug 2, 2007.

  1. silk


    I can see the fed cutting rates by 1/4 point next week. The secondary mortgage market is in collapse and interest rates for nonconforming mortgages has moved up. Two tiers of the mortgage market are currently hardly functioning.

    I think the fed has nothing to lose and everything to gain by cutting.

    If lowering rates to 1% wasn't too risky, then how can cutting to 5% when credit markets on in turmoil be a bad thing.

    I would not be shocked if fed does something any day now.

    Notice the dollar has stopped falling. Perhaps an intervention is in play to not let dollar crash heading into and then after a surprise cut.
  2. Not a chance; It is a time for bankers rein in the run away inflation and destroying some egomaniac countries who export oil.
  3. Quark


  4. Beast84


    Why does everyone care what the fed will or won't do. Trade after the news.
  5. people say shit like this all the time, but anyone with a half a bran can

    a)predict the feds move (somewhat)


    b)predict what the market anticipates(100%)

    You know how much money is involved in this? Saying "i only react" is stupid when the market prices things illogically, heading into this statement.

    Worst case you get it wrong and lose a bit but if you are knowledgeable you can make a killing off of these.

    and the funny thing is all i am is a trader, i will not hold stuff over night but it does not take a genius to recognize the fact that making money on a fed statement is easy.

    I will tell you what, in advance i alreay know the markets will most likely sell off since the market is anticipating a cut, which is totally irrational, and they will panick when it doesnt come. Now go out and make some money off this, its 5 easy points right off the announcement, then most likely a rally to "TRY" to come back then a sell off. What is the best case for the bulls, a cut which was expected?? LOL, this game is not tough people only make it out to be.

    And you know what?? worst case scenario i am wrong and i will make money off of it anyways with tight stops, and volatility.
  6. absolutely no chance.

    the reason we are in this mess is because of greenspan and interest rates at 1 percent.

    you want to add more fuel to the fire by cutting rates.

    at some point the market was gonna have to take some pain for the cheap money and here it is.

    take the pain and absorb the losses and repay the debt.

    no more freebies.

    the fed deep down knows it cant cut and it also knows it cant hike.

    this is why the fed is hold and why it will be continue to be on hold.

    damned if you do and damned if you do not.

    sooner or later we all sit down to a banquet of consequences.
  7. Nice to see someone with sane rational logic agrees wth me.

    Thats really all you need, its an easy game when you boil it down to this.

  8. There is a difference between statistical trading(which you run the numbders of the pattern and repeat) and discretionary, you better figure out which side you are on in this game quickly, because if you expect to be a discretionary trader who will not play the fed you are not gonna make it very long.
  9. Silk, will you get long any financials that you believe are oversold, because of this prediction?
  10. wave


    Financials are on sale and someone was buying homebuilders yesterday. You think they know something we don't?
    #10     Aug 3, 2007