Darkhorse: I agree with your analysis about the current baby boom generation having felt the sting of the current bear market, not unlike their parents/grandparents who went through the same cycle of despair 75 years ago... There is actually an interesting, obscure book written by an old-timer called "What if the Boomers Can't Retire" that really gets into the nuts and bolts of this problem going forward...THe main hypothesis is simple: Who will absorb all of the selling when these boomers are forced to withdraw from their Pension Plans? It might be a bit of an overstatement for all of us to assume that Generation X or Y or Z will be naive enough to buy equities after a 5,10, 15 year flat to down market(if that is what will take place in the coming years)... What is even worse about the current environment for alot of these people dependent upon investment returns either for income or retirement is that the "risk free" return is about as abyssmal as it can get...Not only do they get penalized for not investing in stocks, but they cannot get a decent return in a class of securities that have historically been a "buffer" when equities were bad(ala late seventies, early eighties)...
Yeah, funky times ahead, all the more reason to move forward with no opinion whatsoever (the short term trader's specialty). The only reason I don't worry about the redemption smackdown thesis is because the government can open the spigots whenever they want. There is always the money supply, and then of course the real 800 ton gorilla is the so called social security fund- if things get bad enough Uncle Sam can sock trillions right into the market, or otherwise find a legal way to goose the daylights out of it. When it comes to accounting tricks, the USG makes Enron look mickey mouse in comparison... So things might get ugly, but will stocks respond by going into a death spiral, or will they shoot to the moon inflation style as the value of a dollar drops to ten cents? Round and round and round she goes, where she stops, nobody knows....
I lived in Japan for several years so FYI it's "Seppuku" and "Hara-kiri." Of the two terms, the Japanese themselves favor "seppuku," which is the formal term for "ritual suicide." Hara-kiri is the common language term and literally means "stomach cutting," one of the most painful forms of seppuku.....I hate to see such wonderful traditions be misspelled! Boy, if an American executive were to commit seppuku that would blow the Japanese mind, possibly gain us more respect in their eyes, and possibly help with the trade deficit! Good luck finding a volunteer though, especially from Merrill!
Sorry for the mis-spelling I never lived in Japan...lol thanks for setting me straight! also intersting comments too! mrktwiz