You obviously don't get it. By the time that the "true" reason for the surge in global crude oil prices comes to light, the market will have already turned. You can't have it BOTH ways.
that is sooo Cnbc ish!!!! SHORTING just because its over valued.. wait for the technicals to say when to short unless of course you enjoy giving money away.
Well, Sky, you have asked for opinions. So i will tell you straight out. It would be very bad trading technique to short oil at this point. You are guessing, i.e., gambling, based on what you think should logically happen. Markets don't care what you think is logical. Though i hate to quote that blowhard, O'Neil, i am forced to at least paraphrase him: "Never short something because you think it is too high." It is likely that oil will come down from where it is now at some point, but when? Maybe tomorrow, maybe this summer, maybe this Fall, maybe next year, maybe not in your lifetime. The proper technique is to chart oil and follow it closely. After it tops and shows confirmed signs of weakness, you should begin to think about shorting it. Not before then. Perhaps you would find a point and figure chart useful as far as getting an objective signal to short. You might take a look at Holy Grail's thread on PnF charts. There are many other equally good technical signals for a short as well, but thinking oil is ridiculously high is not one of them. Do not short oil right now. Not until you get an objective technical signal that says to you: "Go short."
Do you recall GS changing the weighting of gasoline futures in the GSCI and consequently causing gasoline futures to be dumped; thus depressing the price of gasoline at the pump in the summer of 2003 just in time to help get George Bush re-elected? Curiously, that entire move seemed to be coordinated with Hank moving from GS to Treasury. (If i recall, he moved to Treasury, and shortly thereafter the change in weighting was announced. How convenient! Then, as if by magic, after the election that Fall, gas prices began to rise right back to where they were before the change in the GSCI. Miracles happen it seems! If there was really was a God, Henry would be in Federal Prison, George would be sentenced to serve two consecutive deployments with our ground troops in Iraq without body armor, and Dick would be drowned by waterboarding. Ergo, there obviously is no God.
Leave it someone on ET to allege that Goldman Sachs has the power to send a Global Commodity higher day after day after day . . . Go figure.
Forget about the "conspiracy" theories and stop being so ridiculous . . . It is strictly a marketing ploy by Goldman to get some free publicity and advertising. Throw out a nice big round number that seems a bit outrageous ( like $200 oil ) and every newswire in the business will be covering your research analyst prediction and company name. The same thing happened when analysts started to put up those ridiculous $800 targets for QUALCOM.
this is a runaway market here - and while you may be close time-wise - you could be off a mile price wise. i think copper back in 04 or 05 - can't remember exactly - but it cracked $3 - and went straight to 4 within weeks - thats a gigantic move % wise. don't be a tim knight - just wait for the madness. once it cracks - it'll only rally to sell. you remember the naz? good, wait for it to crack, once it does you can sell it all day and twice on tuesday. don't be a tim knight. it'll look like you missed a fortune, but wait for the crack first.
even the careful shorts dont realize that all they are doing is using dips of a strong market to initiate a bet that prices will fall. the guys that are a making the easy money will be buying that dip. shorting dips of a strong market, thats financial suicide not trading, why make things hard?