BINGO!!!! So many people try to make a killing on one trade. You can be a singles hitter and make a great deal of income. Nobody brags about their singles, they brag about their home runs, but the singles produce dependable income.
Why is it that peeps want to short one of the best stocks around? AAPL has $27 a share in cash....no debt, growing at 30% per year. Estimated 2010 EPS this year is $11+ per share. Which after you take the cash out, they are trading at 18x forward earnings. Growing at 30%+. I love the "TOP" calls and shorting the kings of the market. This is called "Widow Makers". Why not short the crap companies? I will say RIMM is a short...AAPL is getting into the biz side and will crush canuk RIMM. They will also destroy android once VZ and Sprint get's the iPhone. I read all the post's about upset VZ customers that just bot android phones and now they hear about the iPhone coming soon. New iPhone coming out this summer....along with the iPhone 4.0 OS...which is targeted at biz side: multi-tasking...AND multi-emails...that is what made BB the king. AND iPAD is rocking!!!! Regardless, go short crap companies when the market turns...if it doesn't turn till next fall....your short in AAPL will be $70-80 under water. Quit shorting kings and making top calls. That is what gambler's do. It is almost a revenge thinking....Kinda like obama thinking...go after the winners for justice. Well, the market is the ultimate justice. And, until the TARP is done and/or we see FF and DR rates raised, then the market will go down.
I have an old palm cell phone, my contract has already expired, but I am waiting for this new IPhone with multitasking to come out on 4 G, and I will buy it.
But you forget - "it's gone too far, too fast". Everyone knows that means it's a great short! The fundamentals, price action, and valuation don't matter, compared to the opinion of one guy who thinks the price shouldn't go up quite so fast
Historical seasonal analysis for AAPL - Apple Inc. This table shows the historical average percentage move if the stock was bought at the Open on the date in the first column and held for a number of trading days. The column headers - 1 to 10 - represent the trading days held and then a sell at the Close of the trading day. YOU ARE LOOKING AT HISTORY - NOT PREDICTIONS! -id be interested if someone can test this strategy of only buying XYZ if on the trade day +10 days the historical return is >X% over a few hundred stocks. thinking about it you would have to test the crap out of this to find out if the strategy actually does not have an edge. how would you control for so many biases across the sample
Posted this pic in another thread, but maybe it'll help some of the newer posters see it from a different perspective: the stock was called RIMM. ---------------------------------- You'll see that those sky high prices which looked ripe for a fall, look like bargains in hindsight. If you look at enough of these, it tends to help un-glue your mind from that bias (and gasp, TA bias in general), IMO. real life ex: Hey it's a way overbought wave 3 pullback setup! So you short away with your lifetime savings and .... You promptly have your head served to you on a rusty platter. At which point your guru tells you, oh, er... that was a nested fractal in a bigger wave context. This might be a good picture to refer to as I'm sure many are preparing for the short of the lifetime on major indices (aapl.. pick your substitute).