I understand watching a stock, feeling it's too high and all this other crap... I can even understand wanting to short it... But what methodology did he use for getting into the trade? What is the signal, trigger, what is the stop (besides a margin call ).... How does he define his risk???
I'll stick my neck out a bit on the thread. I shorted AAPL. Well sort of anyway. I shorted the May 280 call (actually two times on Friday with the first one about even and then again near the close). Very small just one contract at 4.30 I go long or short stocks that I want to swing or longer via options normally as I feel that it is lower risk as well as overall a better way to capture a trade that your not swinging for the fence with. (I am happy with lots of singles and doubles ) It may not go down much (I don't need it to in order to make money) but I do feel that it will not go up much further without at least a retrace and or pause before going much above 280. It also doesn't take much to figure out that 300 will offer major resistance If it does keep moving higher (I predict odds not the future) I will also short the 290 and maybe the 300 (past experience tells me that 300 will find a lot of sellers and the IV may not be large enough to justify)
The trigger to short AAPL is the day it tops $300 and Goldman raises the target price to $375 the next morning. That will be the guaranteed top.
europhia always pops.. it wil likely take 1-2 more years in apples case. RIMM took a while to pop GOOG took a while to pop the real estate took a while to pop.. be patient.
Another way to discern light over this very obscure and difficult to solve 'where is the top' subject is to wait for price to break previous support levels. A. Einstein
Pre-market June 19, 2008 POT target raised to $425. POT hits an all-time high of 241.62 at the open and commences to fall 80% over the next 6 months. Early July 2008, GS raises target on crude oil to $200. Oil hits a top around $147 and commences to fall 75% over the next 8 months. Maybe not just GS, looks like JPM's a good top signaler too: April 6, 2010: U.S. Steel Corp. and AK Steel Holding Corp. both saw their shares buck market declines Tuesday after J.P. Morgan Securities said it expects the sector to benefit from rising iron ore prices That day U.S. Steel Corp hits a 52-week high and commences to fall 20% over the next 9 trading days.
let me give a closer-related stock which you forgot to mention. GOOG kept rising to 730ish (now at 545) despite many that kept trying to short it... not saying this exact same scenario will happen with AAPL. it's fair to say it is not completely guaranteed the bulls with AAPL will not keep trying to rally the stock past 300.